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Inbox: Downgrade für Agrana


Agrana
Akt. Indikation:  17.50 / 17.70
Uhrzeit:  22:34:42
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  0.00%
Letzter SK:  17.60 ( -2.22%)

15.09.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

AGRANA cut to HOLD, TP EUR 114.5 - Facing reality of low prices

- earnings estimates cut by 34% in 2/2019e and by 33% in 2/2020e
- global sugar prices have been collapsing and bioethanol prices are falling too
- target price lowered to EUR 114.5 (from EUR 136.0)
- Rating cut to HOLD (from BUY)
- AGRANA´s EV/EBITDA of 9.4x for 2018e is in line with the sector median now

We think that AGRANA is a very well-managed company offering growth across the cycle, strong free cash flows and a shareholder-friendly dividend policy. Nevertheless, we downgrade AGRANA to HOLD (from BUY) because we reckon that the earnings of the group will be at an inflection point after the release of very strong 2Q 17/18e results, scheduled for October 12. We now forecast much lower earnings and cash flows in 2018/19e and 2019/20e due to the ongoing weakness of global sugar prices and the decline of the price for bioethanol. Moreover we think that the potential acquisition of any Serbian sugar assets will have a much smaller positive impact on our earnings projections.
 
Falling prices for sugar and bioethanol: Since the beginning of 2017 global sugar prices have been in decline mode, which in turn is due to the expectation that the global sugar market will be in imbalance (supplies in excess of demand) going forward leading to higher inventories. We find it hard to predict when the global sugar price is likely to recover, but for the time being we assume it will remain on such a low level during until mid-2018e. At present the European prices of bioethanol are hovering around the level of EUR 530/cbm, which is in line with the average level of prices since the beginning of 2016. We estimate that AGRANA´s own bioethanol activities are profitable above the EUR 500/cbm price mark, which means this business is currently still in positive territory albeit lower in comparison to recent quarters.
 
Earnings revisions: On balance we keep our 2017/18e earnings estimates unchanged but cut our net profit estimates by 34% for 2018/19e and by 33% for 2019/20e. This, in turn, is due to the following new assumptions: 1) a 20% yoy decline of realised prices and gross profit in the Sugar segment, 2) a similar decline of prices for isoglucose, a business which represents 15% of the Starch segment and 3) lower income from associates from HUNGRANA given the current weakening of European prices for bioethanol. In light of the current weak development of the global sugar price we think that the potential acquisition of any Serbian sugar assets if concluded will have a much smaller impact on our earnings projections than so far projected.
 
Growth investments: The current capex initiatives of the group include the addition of two further lines to its fruit preparations business in the USA and France. Moreover the group plans to build a second fruit preparations plant in China with a capacity of 30k tons. Elsewhere the company also decided to enlarge its existing potato starch facility in Gmünd/Austria for EUR 40 mn and the wheat starch capacity in Pischelsdorf/Austria for EUR 92 mn. We believe these expansion plans will support additional growth for the Starch and Fruit segments over the medium term, which we think is the right strategy and we continue to see this as a positive development.

Company im Artikel

Agrana

Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Agrana-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Hauck & Aufhäuser und Oddo Seydler Bank AG, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



Agrana


Aktien auf dem Radar:Porr, UBM, DO&CO, Telekom Austria, Lenzing, Frequentis, Marinomed Biotech, Zumtobel, Polytec Group, SBO, Semperit, AMS, VIG, voestalpine, Wolford, Andritz, AT&S, Bawag, Erste Group, FACC, Flughafen Wien, Kapsch TrafficCom, OMV, Palfinger, RBI, S Immo, Strabag, Uniqa, CA Immo, Warimpex, Amag.

(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

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    Inbox: Downgrade für Agrana


    15.09.2017

    15.09.2017

    Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

    AGRANA cut to HOLD, TP EUR 114.5 - Facing reality of low prices

    - earnings estimates cut by 34% in 2/2019e and by 33% in 2/2020e
    - global sugar prices have been collapsing and bioethanol prices are falling too
    - target price lowered to EUR 114.5 (from EUR 136.0)
    - Rating cut to HOLD (from BUY)
    - AGRANA´s EV/EBITDA of 9.4x for 2018e is in line with the sector median now

    We think that AGRANA is a very well-managed company offering growth across the cycle, strong free cash flows and a shareholder-friendly dividend policy. Nevertheless, we downgrade AGRANA to HOLD (from BUY) because we reckon that the earnings of the group will be at an inflection point after the release of very strong 2Q 17/18e results, scheduled for October 12. We now forecast much lower earnings and cash flows in 2018/19e and 2019/20e due to the ongoing weakness of global sugar prices and the decline of the price for bioethanol. Moreover we think that the potential acquisition of any Serbian sugar assets will have a much smaller positive impact on our earnings projections.
     
    Falling prices for sugar and bioethanol: Since the beginning of 2017 global sugar prices have been in decline mode, which in turn is due to the expectation that the global sugar market will be in imbalance (supplies in excess of demand) going forward leading to higher inventories. We find it hard to predict when the global sugar price is likely to recover, but for the time being we assume it will remain on such a low level during until mid-2018e. At present the European prices of bioethanol are hovering around the level of EUR 530/cbm, which is in line with the average level of prices since the beginning of 2016. We estimate that AGRANA´s own bioethanol activities are profitable above the EUR 500/cbm price mark, which means this business is currently still in positive territory albeit lower in comparison to recent quarters.
     
    Earnings revisions: On balance we keep our 2017/18e earnings estimates unchanged but cut our net profit estimates by 34% for 2018/19e and by 33% for 2019/20e. This, in turn, is due to the following new assumptions: 1) a 20% yoy decline of realised prices and gross profit in the Sugar segment, 2) a similar decline of prices for isoglucose, a business which represents 15% of the Starch segment and 3) lower income from associates from HUNGRANA given the current weakening of European prices for bioethanol. In light of the current weak development of the global sugar price we think that the potential acquisition of any Serbian sugar assets if concluded will have a much smaller impact on our earnings projections than so far projected.
     
    Growth investments: The current capex initiatives of the group include the addition of two further lines to its fruit preparations business in the USA and France. Moreover the group plans to build a second fruit preparations plant in China with a capacity of 30k tons. Elsewhere the company also decided to enlarge its existing potato starch facility in Gmünd/Austria for EUR 40 mn and the wheat starch capacity in Pischelsdorf/Austria for EUR 92 mn. We believe these expansion plans will support additional growth for the Starch and Fruit segments over the medium term, which we think is the right strategy and we continue to see this as a positive development.

    Company im Artikel

    Agrana

    Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Agrana-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Hauck & Aufhäuser und Oddo Seydler Bank AG, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



    Agrana



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    Agrana
    Akt. Indikation:  17.50 / 17.70
    Uhrzeit:  22:34:42
    Veränderung zu letztem SK:  0.00%
    Letzter SK:  17.60 ( -2.22%)



     

    Bildnachweis

    1. Agrana   >> Öffnen auf photaq.com

    Aktien auf dem Radar:Porr, UBM, DO&CO, Telekom Austria, Lenzing, Frequentis, Marinomed Biotech, Zumtobel, Polytec Group, SBO, Semperit, AMS, VIG, voestalpine, Wolford, Andritz, AT&S, Bawag, Erste Group, FACC, Flughafen Wien, Kapsch TrafficCom, OMV, Palfinger, RBI, S Immo, Strabag, Uniqa, CA Immo, Warimpex, Amag.


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