29.08.2016

Zugemailt von: Neuberger Berman (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Die Märkte sind ruhig – vielleicht zu ruhig?

Joseph V. Amato von Neuberger Berman warnt Investoren: Die außerordentlich ruhigen „Hundstage“ im August sind vielleicht nur die Ruhe vor dem Sturm 

“August 2016 will go down as an exceptionally sleepy month.

Leading up to the meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole last week, the S&P 500 Index went through 34 trading sessions without a 1% one-day move, up or down. It only broke 0.5% six times. That made it the least volatile 30 days in more than 20 years. Similarly, Bloomberg reports that the August trading range for the 10-year U.S. Treasury was the tightest for any month in a decade.

Moreover, investors appear to believe that these conditions will persist for some time.”

Amato nennt auch die Gründe für die geringe Volatilität:

”Brexit turned out not to be the end of the world; U.S. jobs data is back on track; Europe’s economic data continues to improve; bond yields have fallen and corporate earnings have disappointed, but stocks keep climbing; rate hikes keep getting postponed; and opinion polls started to favor the more predictable U.S. Presidential candidate.”

Er warnt jedoch vor zu viel Selbstzufriedenheit:

”[…] complacency is unwise – and not just because all of this could flip around by mid-September. In financial markets, complacency itself can store up danger, increasing vulnerability to unexpected changes in conditions.

A driver on a perfectly straight highway can be tempted to take his eyes off the road and put his foot on the gas, and investors often behave in a similar way. As ’risk’ appears to diminish, they add leverage or take bigger bets to use up their risk budgets. They become less inclined to hedge against downside losses, even as the premiums to do so get cheaper – hence the low level of the VIX. That makes for a harder crash when a tire blows out.”

Amato ist überzeugt:

“Market volatility reverts to its mean, but even taking this into account, periods of unusually low volatility have often preceded bouts of unusually high volatility. Volatility was low just before the dollar came off the gold standard in August 1971, for example; it was low at the beginning of 2007 just before the financial crisis began to unfold; and it was low early in 2011 before the Eurozone crisis erupted. Low volatility didn’t predict events like these, of course, but it created the vulnerability that explains some of the unusually high volatility when those events occurred.”

Und schließt:

“Markets have slumbered deeply during the dog days of August. Investors should be prepared for when they rouse again.”

Ich geh schlafen, Neun, Müde

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