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Inbox: Für RCB ist Polytec jetzt eine Kaufempfehlung
21.08.2017
Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)
Polytec raised to BUY, TP EUR 19.5 - Higher estimates + recent correction = back to Buy
- We have raised our 2017-19e EPS forecasts by 23% on average, increase the target price to EUR 19.5 from EUR 15.5 and consequently upgrade Polytec to BUY from HOLD
- 2Q results were good, fully in line with RCBe, with a 9.1% EBIT margin being the main highlight
- Having gained more confidence in Polytecs earnings potential coupled with the recent share price correction we again see compelling value in the stock
- The companys outlook wording became more positive and we think that a more pronounced guidance hike is inevitable at a later stage
- Recent news-flow in the auto industry was negative, but the company has no indication of a change in the call-off pattern by its customers so far
- Trading at 2017-18e P/Es of 7.7x and 8.2x we regard some market uncertainty as priced in. The 3% dividend yield also looks reasonably attractive and is well above the sector median
We have raised our 2017-19e EPS forecasts by 23% on average, increase the target price to EUR 19.5 from EUR 15.5 and consequently upgrade Polytec to BUY from HOLD. 2Q results were good, fully in line with RCBe, with a 9.1% EBIT margin being the main highlight. Having gained more confidence in Polytecs earnings potential coupled with the recent share price correction we again see compelling value in the stock. We think that the main items that drove the profitability improvement over the last two years (lean management programme, relocation of production from DE to CZ, Ebensee turnaround) should provide greater earnings support also in the next years. Undoubtedly the recent news-flow in the auto industry (e.g. cartel accusations of German OEMs, discussions around driving ban of certain diesel cars) was negative, but importantly the company, claiming good visibility, has no indication of a change in the call-off pattern by its customers so far. We acknowledge that the automotive cycle could be at a relatively advanced stage but were also left with the impression that Polytec is confident to compensate a potential demand slowdown via new nominations and market share gains. Trading at 2017-18e P/Es of 8.0x and 8.4x, respectively, we regard some market uncertainty as priced in. Our target price translates into a P/E of 10x (still a clear double-digit discount vs. peers). The dividend yield of 3% also looks reasonably attractive and is well above the sector median.
More confident 2017 outlook should become even more upbeat in due course: The company slightly amended the 2017 outlook wording by adding the phrase at a minimum to the expectation of a slight increase of sales and operating profit. We think that after the strong 1H performance as well as bearing in mind the seasonal pattern and comments that raw material cost inflation will not be a noteworthy headwind in 2H, a more pronounced guidance hike is inevitable at a later stage. Our revised 2017e EBIT estimate of EUR 65 mn implies a yoy improvement by almost 1/4.
Higher estimates: We raise 2017e sales by 2% to EUR 689 mn (+5% in 2H) and EBIT by 20% to EUR 65 mn (FY margin of 9.4% implies a stable 2H margin of 9.8%). For both 2018e and 2019e we have pencilled in 3% growth to EUR 712 mn and EUR 734 mn, respectively, but estimate EBIT margins of 8.7% and 8.3%, respectively. In terms of EPS we raise 2017-19e forecasts by 23% on average to EUR 2.06, EUR 1.95 and EUR 1.92, respectively.
Valuation: The total-return TP of EUR 19.5 (incl. DPS of EUR 0.50) is based on an equally weighted blend of an economic profit model (now based on a normalised post-tax ROCE of 11.5% as opposed to presumed peak returns when employing the 2017-18e average previously) and a DCF model (TG 1.5%, perpetual EBIT margin 6.5%).
Valuation: The total-return TP of EUR 19.5 (incl. DPS of EUR 0.50) is based on an equally weighted blend of an economic profit model (now based on a normalised post-tax ROCE of 11.5% as opposed to presumed peak returns when employing the 2017-18e average previously) and a DCF model (TG 1.5%, perpetual EBIT margin 6.5%).
7333
fur_rcb_ist_polytec_jetzt_eine_kaufempfehlung
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(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)183143
inbox_fur_rcb_ist_polytec_jetzt_eine_kaufempfehlung
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Bernard LarssonInbox: Für RCB ist Polytec jetzt eine Kaufempfehlung
21.08.2017, 4177 Zeichen
21.08.2017
Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)
Polytec raised to BUY, TP EUR 19.5 - Higher estimates + recent correction = back to Buy
- We have raised our 2017-19e EPS forecasts by 23% on average, increase the target price to EUR 19.5 from EUR 15.5 and consequently upgrade Polytec to BUY from HOLD
- 2Q results were good, fully in line with RCBe, with a 9.1% EBIT margin being the main highlight
- Having gained more confidence in Polytecs earnings potential coupled with the recent share price correction we again see compelling value in the stock
- The companys outlook wording became more positive and we think that a more pronounced guidance hike is inevitable at a later stage
- Recent news-flow in the auto industry was negative, but the company has no indication of a change in the call-off pattern by its customers so far
- Trading at 2017-18e P/Es of 7.7x and 8.2x we regard some market uncertainty as priced in. The 3% dividend yield also looks reasonably attractive and is well above the sector median
We have raised our 2017-19e EPS forecasts by 23% on average, increase the target price to EUR 19.5 from EUR 15.5 and consequently upgrade Polytec to BUY from HOLD. 2Q results were good, fully in line with RCBe, with a 9.1% EBIT margin being the main highlight. Having gained more confidence in Polytecs earnings potential coupled with the recent share price correction we again see compelling value in the stock. We think that the main items that drove the profitability improvement over the last two years (lean management programme, relocation of production from DE to CZ, Ebensee turnaround) should provide greater earnings support also in the next years. Undoubtedly the recent news-flow in the auto industry (e.g. cartel accusations of German OEMs, discussions around driving ban of certain diesel cars) was negative, but importantly the company, claiming good visibility, has no indication of a change in the call-off pattern by its customers so far. We acknowledge that the automotive cycle could be at a relatively advanced stage but were also left with the impression that Polytec is confident to compensate a potential demand slowdown via new nominations and market share gains. Trading at 2017-18e P/Es of 8.0x and 8.4x, respectively, we regard some market uncertainty as priced in. Our target price translates into a P/E of 10x (still a clear double-digit discount vs. peers). The dividend yield of 3% also looks reasonably attractive and is well above the sector median.
More confident 2017 outlook should become even more upbeat in due course: The company slightly amended the 2017 outlook wording by adding the phrase at a minimum to the expectation of a slight increase of sales and operating profit. We think that after the strong 1H performance as well as bearing in mind the seasonal pattern and comments that raw material cost inflation will not be a noteworthy headwind in 2H, a more pronounced guidance hike is inevitable at a later stage. Our revised 2017e EBIT estimate of EUR 65 mn implies a yoy improvement by almost 1/4.
Higher estimates: We raise 2017e sales by 2% to EUR 689 mn (+5% in 2H) and EBIT by 20% to EUR 65 mn (FY margin of 9.4% implies a stable 2H margin of 9.8%). For both 2018e and 2019e we have pencilled in 3% growth to EUR 712 mn and EUR 734 mn, respectively, but estimate EBIT margins of 8.7% and 8.3%, respectively. In terms of EPS we raise 2017-19e forecasts by 23% on average to EUR 2.06, EUR 1.95 and EUR 1.92, respectively.
Valuation: The total-return TP of EUR 19.5 (incl. DPS of EUR 0.50) is based on an equally weighted blend of an economic profit model (now based on a normalised post-tax ROCE of 11.5% as opposed to presumed peak returns when employing the 2017-18e average previously) and a DCF model (TG 1.5%, perpetual EBIT margin 6.5%).
Valuation: The total-return TP of EUR 19.5 (incl. DPS of EUR 0.50) is based on an equally weighted blend of an economic profit model (now based on a normalised post-tax ROCE of 11.5% as opposed to presumed peak returns when employing the 2017-18e average previously) and a DCF model (TG 1.5%, perpetual EBIT margin 6.5%).
7333
fur_rcb_ist_polytec_jetzt_eine_kaufempfehlung
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Polytec
, (© finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper) >> Öffnen auf photaq.com
Aktien auf dem Radar:Porr, VIG, FACC, Addiko Bank, Pierer Mobility, Rosenbauer, Österreichische Post, Lenzing, Bawag, Andritz, AT&S, Mayr-Melnhof, Erste Group, Palfinger, RBI, UBM, Wienerberger, Warimpex, SW Umwelttechnik, BKS Bank Stamm, Oberbank AG Stamm, Strabag, Austriacard Holdings AG, Agrana, Amag, Flughafen Wien, Kapsch TrafficCom, OMV, Telekom Austria, Uniqa, ATX.
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