Und wie geht es mit den Rohstoffen weiter?

UniCredit-Research: 

"■  Last week, the Brent crude oil price fell again slightly, briefly dipping to USD 96/bbl – the lowest level in two years. A major price-dampening aspect was the fact that Libya succeeded in boosting its oil production to 925,000 bp/d again. Back in April, its output still stood at a mere 200,000 bp/d. The supply situation in the oil market has thus improved further, while demand tends to soften. The seasonal decline in consumption could reduce the call on OPEC (plus the change in stock levels) for 1H15 by 1.7 mb/d versus 2H14. Unless OPEC's output targets are reduced, the coming six months might thus bring a test of the two-year low at USD 90/bbl.

■  According to the International Aluminum Institute, 4,424 million tons of aluminum were produced in August. However, we continue to expect a supply deficit despite record production. This is indicated by the continuous reduction in LME stock levels, which have dropped by 336,000 tons since the end of July. We are therefore penciling in an average aluminum price of USD 2,000/t in the first half of 2015.

■  The International Copper Study Group reported a supply shortfall of 526,000 tons for the first six months of 2014 in the copper market, while a surplus of 139,000 tons had still been recorded in the same period of the previous year. We expect the copper price to oscillate around the USD 7,000/t mark in the first half of 2015.

■  The gold price moved sideways last week. Burdens mainly emanated from very weak numbers for Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong. The gold price is thus still facing a critical test in its multi-month consolidation phase since June 2013."

Gold

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