Inbox: RCB bullish auf Andritz


03.01.2018

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Andritz raised to BUY, TP EUR 54.0 - Price rally could finally end large pulp mill hiatus

  • Chinese demand has fuelled last year's pulp price rally; considerable price increases could spur new pulp mill investment, especially given the drop in confirmed additions from 2019 onwards
  • We believe that the large pulp mill order hiatus could finally come to an end in 2018e
  • We remain cautious on Hydro and Metals
  • We raise our price target to EUR 54 (from EUR 50) on a better mid-term earnings outlook and lift our recommendation to BUY from HOLD
With pulp prices at record levels, some M&A issues solved in Brazil and demand soaring in China we reckon that the urgent need for new capacities should lead to green lights for several new pulp mill projects and orders for Andritz in 2018e. Major orders should lay the basis for a recovery of earnings in 2019e, after a bottoming-out in 2018e. We increase our mid-term earnings (by 2% on average) and raise our price target to EUR 54 (from EUR 50), further supported by continued sector rerating. Given a 15% upside to our target price, we review our recommendation ahead of potential new pulp mill orders and raise Andritz to BUY from HOLD.
 
Pulp has to get going: Hardwood pulp prices increased by 20-52% in 2017, not only on supply issues, but strong demand growth while capacity additions are to slow down next year and in 2019e. In order to meet ever-increasing demand for pulp mainly from China, new plants have to be built, and orders for a 2020/21e start-up have to be placed rather soon (e.g. SUN BIO Arkansas, Finnpulp, Guangxi Jingui and several Russian projects). We expect order news-flow to improve in 2018e and, as a result, also raise our mid-term earnings forecast.
 
Metals, Hydro still subdued: Power price conditions have improved in the last several months, with coal prices rising on Chinese demand and European CO2 emission permits recovering, but we are still far away from coverage of long-run marginal costs. Hence we maintain our muted stance on the Hydro business, albeit at a bit stronger margins as the decline of service revenues was slower than the top line drop and because of slightly higher sales given Chinese pumped-storage potential. The lack of a B-segment offering could weigh on Metals growth for a while, even as Yadon's C-market business seems to be thriving. On a positive note, we would seem some upside in the old metals business, as voestalpine plans to replace the Kapfenberg steel plant and the EU supports process optimisation in the industry.
 
What's next: Andritz is due to report FY 17e figures and the 2018e outlook on March 2, 2018. We reckon with a neutral management comment for 2018e along the lines of "stable sales" and "comparable margins excluding one-offs", which is below the usually more upbeat consensus. However, with expectations for the weaker segments (Hydro and Metals) already low following management comments on investment activity, we would not be overly concerned.
 
Outlook & recommendation: We have adjusted our forecast to recent results and a better mid-term pulp outlook, but remain cautious on margins given commodity price increases. Slightly higher earnings' impact on target multiple, ROCE and DCF-based fair values as well as a wider discount vs. peers are the key drivers for our target price upgrade.

Companies im Artikel

Andritz

 
Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Zykliker Österreich
Show latest Report (23.12.2017)
 
Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Andritz-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Erste Group Bank AG, Baader Bank AG, Hudson River Trading Europe, Tower Research Capital, Société Générale S.A., Virtu Financial Ireland Limited und Wood & Company Financial Services, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



voestalpine

 
Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Stahl
Show latest Report (30.12.2017)
 
Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der voestalpine-Aktien sorgen die Wood & Company Financial Services als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Baader Bank AG, Erste Group Bank AG, Hudson River Trading Europe, Société Générale S.A., Tower Research Capital, Virtu Financial Ireland Limited und Raiffeisen Centrobank AG, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



Andritz © finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper


Aktien auf dem Radar: AT&S , Rocket Internet , Dialog Semiconductor , Commerzbank , Polytec , Immofinanz , Airbus Group , WireCard , FACC .

(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

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BayWa
Das Geschäftsmodell der BayWa verbindet Handel, Vertrieb, Logistik und Service in den drei Hauptgeschäftsfeldern Agrar, Energie und Bau. Hauptsitz der 1923 gegründeten Muttergesellschaft BayWa AG ist München. Einschließlich Franchise- und Partnerfirmen verfügt der Konzern über knapp 3.000 Vertriebsstandorte in 40 Ländern.

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Inbox: RCB bullish auf Andritz


03.01.2018

03.01.2018

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Andritz raised to BUY, TP EUR 54.0 - Price rally could finally end large pulp mill hiatus

  • Chinese demand has fuelled last year's pulp price rally; considerable price increases could spur new pulp mill investment, especially given the drop in confirmed additions from 2019 onwards
  • We believe that the large pulp mill order hiatus could finally come to an end in 2018e
  • We remain cautious on Hydro and Metals
  • We raise our price target to EUR 54 (from EUR 50) on a better mid-term earnings outlook and lift our recommendation to BUY from HOLD
With pulp prices at record levels, some M&A issues solved in Brazil and demand soaring in China we reckon that the urgent need for new capacities should lead to green lights for several new pulp mill projects and orders for Andritz in 2018e. Major orders should lay the basis for a recovery of earnings in 2019e, after a bottoming-out in 2018e. We increase our mid-term earnings (by 2% on average) and raise our price target to EUR 54 (from EUR 50), further supported by continued sector rerating. Given a 15% upside to our target price, we review our recommendation ahead of potential new pulp mill orders and raise Andritz to BUY from HOLD.
 
Pulp has to get going: Hardwood pulp prices increased by 20-52% in 2017, not only on supply issues, but strong demand growth while capacity additions are to slow down next year and in 2019e. In order to meet ever-increasing demand for pulp mainly from China, new plants have to be built, and orders for a 2020/21e start-up have to be placed rather soon (e.g. SUN BIO Arkansas, Finnpulp, Guangxi Jingui and several Russian projects). We expect order news-flow to improve in 2018e and, as a result, also raise our mid-term earnings forecast.
 
Metals, Hydro still subdued: Power price conditions have improved in the last several months, with coal prices rising on Chinese demand and European CO2 emission permits recovering, but we are still far away from coverage of long-run marginal costs. Hence we maintain our muted stance on the Hydro business, albeit at a bit stronger margins as the decline of service revenues was slower than the top line drop and because of slightly higher sales given Chinese pumped-storage potential. The lack of a B-segment offering could weigh on Metals growth for a while, even as Yadon's C-market business seems to be thriving. On a positive note, we would seem some upside in the old metals business, as voestalpine plans to replace the Kapfenberg steel plant and the EU supports process optimisation in the industry.
 
What's next: Andritz is due to report FY 17e figures and the 2018e outlook on March 2, 2018. We reckon with a neutral management comment for 2018e along the lines of "stable sales" and "comparable margins excluding one-offs", which is below the usually more upbeat consensus. However, with expectations for the weaker segments (Hydro and Metals) already low following management comments on investment activity, we would not be overly concerned.
 
Outlook & recommendation: We have adjusted our forecast to recent results and a better mid-term pulp outlook, but remain cautious on margins given commodity price increases. Slightly higher earnings' impact on target multiple, ROCE and DCF-based fair values as well as a wider discount vs. peers are the key drivers for our target price upgrade.

Companies im Artikel

Andritz

 
Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Zykliker Österreich
Show latest Report (23.12.2017)
 
Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Andritz-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Erste Group Bank AG, Baader Bank AG, Hudson River Trading Europe, Tower Research Capital, Société Générale S.A., Virtu Financial Ireland Limited und Wood & Company Financial Services, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



voestalpine

 
Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Stahl
Show latest Report (30.12.2017)
 
Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der voestalpine-Aktien sorgen die Wood & Company Financial Services als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Baader Bank AG, Erste Group Bank AG, Hudson River Trading Europe, Société Générale S.A., Tower Research Capital, Virtu Financial Ireland Limited und Raiffeisen Centrobank AG, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



Andritz © finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper




Bildnachweis

1. Andritz , (© finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper)   >> Öffnen auf photaq.com

Aktien auf dem Radar: AT&S , Rocket Internet , Dialog Semiconductor , Commerzbank , Polytec , Immofinanz , Airbus Group , WireCard , FACC .


Random Partner

BayWa
Das Geschäftsmodell der BayWa verbindet Handel, Vertrieb, Logistik und Service in den drei Hauptgeschäftsfeldern Agrar, Energie und Bau. Hauptsitz der 1923 gegründeten Muttergesellschaft BayWa AG ist München. Einschließlich Franchise- und Partnerfirmen verfügt der Konzern über knapp 3.000 Vertriebsstandorte in 40 Ländern.

>> Besuchen Sie 62 weitere Partner auf boerse-social.com/partner


Andritz, (© finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper)


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Indizes
ATX 3500 0.40% 14:39:51 (3486 -0.70% 18.05.)
DAX 13144 0.51% 14:44:09 (13078 -0.28% 18.05.)
Dow 24946 0.93% 14:44:10 (24715 0.00% 18.05.)
Nikkei 23005 0.33% 14:18:06 (22930 0.40% 18.05.)
Gold 1286 -0.25% 14:44:38 (1289 -0.01% 18.05.)
Bitcoin 8516 0.02% 14:44:09 (8515 3.30% 20.05.)

Featured Partner Video

OMV Strategie 2025

Die OMV ist wieder auf Erfolgskurs! In nur 3 Jahren wurde das Portfolio umgebaut, die Kosten gesenkt, die Produktion gesteigert und die Performance verbessert. 2017 erzielte das Unternehmen das bes...


Magazine / #gabb aktuell


Geschäftsberichte