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Inbox: Mayr-Melnhof - Es fehlen die Trigger


Mayr-Melnhof
Akt. Indikation:  71.40 / 72.40
Uhrzeit:  22:58:40
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  0.28%
Letzter SK:  71.70 ( 2.43%)

17.11.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

RCB: Mayr-Melnhof cut to HOLD, TP EUR 124 - Full valuation and lack of short-term triggers

- Reflecting the good share price performance (all-time high reached in early November) we downgrade Mayr-Melnhof to HOLD from BUY. We set a fractionally higher target price of EUR 124 (EUR 123)
- While the strength of the business model remains undisputed and the company remains a core defensive play, we currently struggle to identify a further (short-term) catalyst
- 3Q figures were bang in line with our estimates from the top to the bottom line and the company appears on track to deliver on the full-year target of earnings coming close to the 2016 record result
- The stock enjoyed a marked multiple expansion and we regard current growth prospects as well discounted in the share price

Reflecting the good share price performance (ytd total return +25%, all-time high reached in early November) we downgrade Mayr-Melnhof to HOLD from BUY on valuation grounds. We set a fractionally higher target price of EUR 124 (EUR 123). While the strength of the business model remains undisputed and the company remains a core defensive play, we currently struggle to identify a further (short-term) catalyst. 3Q figures were bang in line with our estimates from the top to the bottom line and the company appears on track to deliver on the full-year target of earnings coming close to the 2016 record result. In order to reach our EBIT estimate of EUR 213 mn, Mayr-Melnhof requires a largely flat EBIT in 4Q. While 4Q comps in MM Packaging are punchy (margin 11.7%), the opposite is true for MM Karton (margin 5.6%). We point out that the company has stepped up investments in the current year, which could reach about EUR 145-150 mn. Apart from a bolt-on takeover of a packaging plant in Poland, the company also invested in the expansion of the sites in Vietnam, Iran and Jordan as well as in the Dutch cartonboard plant (to further improve the quality of the virgin fibre board production). Against this backdrop we are confident that earnings growth can be restored as of next year. However, we think this is well discounted in the share price, mirrored by a marked multiple expansion.
 
Stock has re-rated valuation above historical median levels: On our forecasts Mayr-Melnhof currently trades at 2018-19e P/E multiples of 15.0x and 14.4x, which we deem at least elevated, though not yet excessive. These levels are significantly above the longer-term median multiples of 13.7x (1 year forward) and 12.9x (2 year forward) and not far away from the respective historical heights that stand at 16.8x and 15.8x, respectively. The same pattern can be observed when referring to EV/EBITDA, where current multiples of 7.1x and 6.6x compare to longer-term medians of 6.0x and 5.5x and maximum levels of 8.2x and 7.6x, respectively.
 
No changes to 2017e, insignificant amendments thereafter: We have incorporated higher 2017e capex, which combined with the aforementioned small M&A transaction raises 2018-19e EBIT by 1% to EUR 226 mn and EUR 235 mn. The new EPS estimates are also up by 1% to EUR 8.15 and EUR 8.51, respectively.
 
Valuation: The total-return target price of EUR 124 (incl. DPS of EUR 3.10) is based on an equally weighted combination of economic profit (renders about EUR 115 based on the 2018e post-tax ROCE estimate of 11.2%) and DCF (suggests ca. EUR 127 based on a perpetual EBIT margin of 8.7% and TG of 1.5%) models. Compared to the peer group MMK trades at a single-digit premium on 2018-19e P/Es, discounts of 14% and 19% on EV/EBITDA and at a 10% discount on EV/EBIT (10.4x and 9.5x vs. sector medians of 11.7x and 10.9x).
       

Company im Artikel

Mayr-Melnhof

 
Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Zykliker Österreich
Show latest Report (11.11.2017)
 
Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Mayr-Melnhof-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Erste Group Bank AG, ICF BANK AG und Virtu Financial Ireland Limited, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



Mayr-Melnhof ist am 22. April 1994 an die Wiener Börse gegangen. Die Aktie schlägt den ATX (c) Mayr-Melnhof Homepage



Aktien auf dem Radar:Pierer Mobility, Warimpex, Semperit, Austriacard Holdings AG, Addiko Bank, Immofinanz, Verbund, VIG, CA Immo, Flughafen Wien, Uniqa, AT&S, Cleen Energy, Kostad, Porr, Wolford, Oberbank AG Stamm, UBM, DO&CO, Agrana, Amag, Erste Group, EVN, OMV, Palfinger, Österreichische Post, S Immo, Telekom Austria, Wienerberger.

(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

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    Inbox: Mayr-Melnhof - Es fehlen die Trigger


    17.11.2017, 4877 Zeichen

    17.11.2017

    Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

    RCB: Mayr-Melnhof cut to HOLD, TP EUR 124 - Full valuation and lack of short-term triggers

    - Reflecting the good share price performance (all-time high reached in early November) we downgrade Mayr-Melnhof to HOLD from BUY. We set a fractionally higher target price of EUR 124 (EUR 123)
    - While the strength of the business model remains undisputed and the company remains a core defensive play, we currently struggle to identify a further (short-term) catalyst
    - 3Q figures were bang in line with our estimates from the top to the bottom line and the company appears on track to deliver on the full-year target of earnings coming close to the 2016 record result
    - The stock enjoyed a marked multiple expansion and we regard current growth prospects as well discounted in the share price

    Reflecting the good share price performance (ytd total return +25%, all-time high reached in early November) we downgrade Mayr-Melnhof to HOLD from BUY on valuation grounds. We set a fractionally higher target price of EUR 124 (EUR 123). While the strength of the business model remains undisputed and the company remains a core defensive play, we currently struggle to identify a further (short-term) catalyst. 3Q figures were bang in line with our estimates from the top to the bottom line and the company appears on track to deliver on the full-year target of earnings coming close to the 2016 record result. In order to reach our EBIT estimate of EUR 213 mn, Mayr-Melnhof requires a largely flat EBIT in 4Q. While 4Q comps in MM Packaging are punchy (margin 11.7%), the opposite is true for MM Karton (margin 5.6%). We point out that the company has stepped up investments in the current year, which could reach about EUR 145-150 mn. Apart from a bolt-on takeover of a packaging plant in Poland, the company also invested in the expansion of the sites in Vietnam, Iran and Jordan as well as in the Dutch cartonboard plant (to further improve the quality of the virgin fibre board production). Against this backdrop we are confident that earnings growth can be restored as of next year. However, we think this is well discounted in the share price, mirrored by a marked multiple expansion.
     
    Stock has re-rated valuation above historical median levels: On our forecasts Mayr-Melnhof currently trades at 2018-19e P/E multiples of 15.0x and 14.4x, which we deem at least elevated, though not yet excessive. These levels are significantly above the longer-term median multiples of 13.7x (1 year forward) and 12.9x (2 year forward) and not far away from the respective historical heights that stand at 16.8x and 15.8x, respectively. The same pattern can be observed when referring to EV/EBITDA, where current multiples of 7.1x and 6.6x compare to longer-term medians of 6.0x and 5.5x and maximum levels of 8.2x and 7.6x, respectively.
     
    No changes to 2017e, insignificant amendments thereafter: We have incorporated higher 2017e capex, which combined with the aforementioned small M&A transaction raises 2018-19e EBIT by 1% to EUR 226 mn and EUR 235 mn. The new EPS estimates are also up by 1% to EUR 8.15 and EUR 8.51, respectively.
     
    Valuation: The total-return target price of EUR 124 (incl. DPS of EUR 3.10) is based on an equally weighted combination of economic profit (renders about EUR 115 based on the 2018e post-tax ROCE estimate of 11.2%) and DCF (suggests ca. EUR 127 based on a perpetual EBIT margin of 8.7% and TG of 1.5%) models. Compared to the peer group MMK trades at a single-digit premium on 2018-19e P/Es, discounts of 14% and 19% on EV/EBITDA and at a 10% discount on EV/EBIT (10.4x and 9.5x vs. sector medians of 11.7x and 10.9x).
           

    Company im Artikel

    Mayr-Melnhof

     
    Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Zykliker Österreich
    Show latest Report (11.11.2017)
     
    Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Mayr-Melnhof-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Erste Group Bank AG, ICF BANK AG und Virtu Financial Ireland Limited, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



    Mayr-Melnhof ist am 22. April 1994 an die Wiener Börse gegangen. Die Aktie schlägt den ATX (c) Mayr-Melnhof Homepage





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    Mayr-Melnhof
    Akt. Indikation:  71.40 / 72.40
    Uhrzeit:  22:58:40
    Veränderung zu letztem SK:  0.28%
    Letzter SK:  71.70 ( 2.43%)



     

    Bildnachweis

    1. Mayr-Melnhof ist am 22. April 1994 an die Wiener Börse gegangen. Die Aktie schlägt den ATX (c) Mayr-Melnhof Homepage   >> Öffnen auf photaq.com

    Aktien auf dem Radar:Pierer Mobility, Warimpex, Semperit, Austriacard Holdings AG, Addiko Bank, Immofinanz, Verbund, VIG, CA Immo, Flughafen Wien, Uniqa, AT&S, Cleen Energy, Kostad, Porr, Wolford, Oberbank AG Stamm, UBM, DO&CO, Agrana, Amag, Erste Group, EVN, OMV, Palfinger, Österreichische Post, S Immo, Telekom Austria, Wienerberger.


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    Mayr-Melnhof ist am 22. April 1994 an die Wiener Börse gegangen. Die Aktie schlägt den ATX (c) Mayr-Melnhof Homepage


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