Erste Group (Nov. 3): Again low COR to support 3Q

- Similar to 2Q we expect Erste to deliver a solid set of 3Q results based on low risk costs and good loan growth and NIM supported by TLTRO.

CZK appreciation (2% in 2Q) should be supportive for P&L translation.
- Loan growth should remain strong (especially in CZ, HH loan growth ca. 8%).
- We expect NII to remain flat qoq supported by loan growth and TLTRO, but impacted by a negative NII impact from lower reinvestment yields to the tune of ca. EUR 8 mn per quarter.
- Risk costs should again remain well below the previous 30 bps guidance in 3Q, given the lack of significant corporate defaults and no further provisioning needs related to the Agrokor exposure.
- Erste’s CET1 ratio should be seasonally weaker qoq (RCBe: 12.6%) given the non-inclusion of 3Q profits in regulatory capital calculation.
- We expect the 2017 guidance of ROTE 10%+ to remain unchanged, with either more emphasis on the “+” or the potential to lift the ROTE guidance to 11% (RCBe: 11.1%), translating into a net profit after AT1 dividends of EUR 1.2 bn.

Changes in estimates/valuation: We have slightly increased our 2017e earnings estimates by 2% on ongoing low risk cost assumptions for 2H and also adjusted 2018e/19e for slightly lower COR assumptions (2018e: 25 bps, 2019e: 29 bps) and slightly higher NII estimates factoring in our improved macro outlook for CEE (GDP 2018e: RO +4.0%, CZ: 3.4%, SK: 4.0%, HU 3.6%) and recent CZP appreciation. Thus we raise our TP from EUR 38 to EUR 40.