Inbox: RCB wird bei AT&S vorsichtig

Apple

Akt. Indikation: 277.70 / 278.00
Uhrzeit: 18:57:11
Veränderung zu letztem SK: 0.18%
Letzter SK: 277.35 ( -0.28%)

AT&S

Akt. Indikation: 181.40 / 182.40
Uhrzeit: 18:55:27
Veränderung zu letztem SK: -1.03%
Letzter SK: 183.80 ( -1.61%)

Samsung Electronics

Akt. Indikation: 2635.00 / 2655.00
Uhrzeit: 18:55:58
Veränderung zu letztem SK: -7.84%
Letzter SK: 2870.00 ( -0.86%)

25.01.2018

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Die Analysten der RCB nehmen die Empfehlung für AT&S von Hold auf Reduce zurück, passen aber das Kursziel von 18,5 auf 23 Euro an. Die Analysten begründen das Downgrade u.a. mit schwächeren Verkäufen des Apple iPhones X (im Vergleich zu den guten iPhone 6-Verkäufen), sowie auch mit einem Preisdruck, der durch das Aufrüsten des Wettbewerbs bei mSAP entstehen wird.

Hier die Analyse im Original:
Although we believe that AT&S would be able to deliver the upper end of its FY 17/18e guidance, we think that iPhone X sales slowdown and delays in flagship smartphone adoption of mSAP limits further room on the upside

We reckon that AT&S would use its leeway in deciding the pacing of its Chongqing phase II expansion, which - among others - drives our mid-term forecast below consensus

We consider the premiums vs. peers as rather rich, especially considering price pressure, delays in mSAP adoption and commodity risks

While we increase our target price to EUR 23 (EUR 18.50) on higher earnings, improved return ratios and the inclusion of phase II of the Chongqing expansion, we cut our recommendation to REDUCE (from HOLD)

We downgrade AT&S to REDUCE from HOLD following the spectacular share price increase in the past few weeks, albeit at a higher target price of EUR 23 vs. EUR 18.50 before. We believe that the iPhone X sales do not repeat the iPhone 6 super-cycle (i.e. strong demand well into the first calendar quarter) and that a positive earnings momentum is not likely to justify the massive multiples expansion: We reckon that a) price pressure should come back on the agenda as competitors ramped up their mSAP lines, b) a weak USD should weigh on the top line and c) delays in flagship smartphone adoption of mSAP could dampen the market's high hopes for continued earnings increases apart from an additional quarter of mSAP technology availability.

FY 17/18e guidance upgrade not likely, slow mSAP adoption: Following the issuance of a hybrid bond worth EUR 175 mn in late 2017, which created leeway for contemplating the phase II expansion of the Chongqing plant, the share continued its journey north, justified by strong demand for AT&Ss mSAP capacities available in time. However, we expect management to take its time with the new technology decision for the available space at the Chongqing plant and cannot pinpoint another trigger until AT&S commits to another flagship technology. At the same time, we do not expect management to up its 2017/18e guidance beyond the current levels of 20-25% sales growth and an EBITDA margin of 19-22%. We remind that Samsung chose Korean and Japanese suppliers for the Samsung Galaxy S9's substrate-like PCBs (to be released probably in March 2018), while other market players did not move to mSAP for the spring release season.

Short-term earnings outlook excellent, but we think that consensus could be too optimistic: We forecast a good set of figures for 3Q 17/18e, but given slowing demand, we do not expect management to raise the FY 17/18e outlook. While we have raised our EBITDA forecast by 3-6% for the next two years, we remain below consensus as we do not anticipate an immediate full ramp-up of Chongqing phase II, as management seems to continue its evaluation of strategic options for the last leg, i.e. the outstanding technology decision. Commodity and FX risks remain on the agenda.

Valuation: AT&S's fair value has increased across all metrics, foremost due to the inclusion of phase II of the Chongqing plant until 2020e, but also thanks to the issuance of the hybrid bond, which we nevertheless regard as debt in our valuation. Our blended target price (average of P/E, EV/EBITDA, return ratio and DCF valuations) of EUR 23 is below the current share price. While AT&S used to trade at a small, fully justified premium vs. its peers only a few months ago (7-8% on P/E, 1-2% on EV/EBITDA) for 2018/19e and 2019/20e, premiums have expanded to 37% and 25% for next year alone, exceeding our low double-digit justified level by quite a margin.

Companies im Artikel

Apple

Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group MSCI World Biggest 10
Show latest Report (20.01.2018)

Im Dow Jones auf Pos. 21 (bezogen auf YTD %).

Platz 1 im Umsatzranking YTD im Dow Jones.

AT&S

Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group PCB (Printed Circuit Board Producer & Clients)
Show latest Report (20.01.2018)

In ATX Prime auf Pos. 35 (bezogen auf YTD %).

Platz 1 im Umsatzranking YTD in ATX Prime.

Karl Asamer (CFO) Andreas Gerstenmayer (CEO) Elke Koch (IR) Heinz Moitzi (Board Member)

Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der AT&S-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Erste Group Bank AG, Hudson River Trading Europe, Hauck & Aufhäuser und Wood & Company Financial Services, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.

Samsung Electronics

Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Global Innovation 1000
Show latest Report (20.01.2018)

AT&S, Leiterplatte

Aktien auf dem Radar:Porr, Kapsch TrafficCom, AT&S, Semperit, RHI Magnesita, Austriacard Holdings AG, OMV, Mayr-Melnhof, Telekom Austria, Lenzing, Strabag, Rosgix, DO&CO, Gurktaler AG VZ, Reploid Group AG, Stadlauer Malzfabrik AG, SW Umwelttechnik, BKS Bank Stamm, Frequentis, Amag, EuroTeleSites AG, CPI Europe AG, Österreichische Post, UBM.

(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

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Inbox: RCB wird bei AT&S vorsichtig

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