13.12.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: Baader Bank (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Baader Bank zu Immofinanz : No meaningful NAV growth in sight – Sell

We change our rating for IMMOFINANZ (IIA) to Sell (previous: Hold) with an unchanged TP of EUR 1.80. Despite an expected significant improvement of net profit and FFO, no meaningful NAV growth is in sight. While the ongoing cost cutting program will lead to a coverage of the dividend by net profit and FFO from 2018E on, the company’s profitability will remain structurally too low in our view. Over the last years and expected for the forecasted period, no profits were generated through valuation improvements, developments or disposals. This has to do with the location (~3/4 of standing assets are in Eastern Europe), but probably also with the quality of the assets. All in all, we expect a slightly negative NAVps development 2016-19E (+0.7% p.a. for 2017E-20E) and a total shareholder value return of 1.6% p.a. vs. our coverage average of 7% p.a. FFO growth is expected to be strong due to the cost savings program and developments coming on stream; however, FFO does come from a very low level and will only cover the current dividend from 2018E on.

Potential merger with CA Immo: Since the disposal of the Russian assets is closed, merger talks will be resumed (probably in January). Due to the profitability gap between the two companies, we see IMMOFINANZ in a relatively weak position despite the fact that they already own 26% in CA Immo. 

New estimates: Our FFO forecasts (pre-development result) increase by 11% for 2017E, 6% for 2018E and 14% for 2019E and reflect the EUR 55mn expected cost savings (property & other operating expenses and financing costs) as well as the guidance for rental income improvement after the completion of ongoing developments. As a result, our dividend forecasts increase as well. Our NAVps forecasts also improve by 14-16% p.a. mainly due to an increased valuation of the CA Immo stake.

Valuation: At our TP, the discount to NAV 18E is 36%, the dividend yield 17E is 3.3% and the FFO yield (18E) is 3.8%.

Companies im Artikel

CA Immo

Immofinanz

Immofinanz Stop Shop Lazarevac (Fotocredit: Immofinanz) © Aussendung

9013

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192380

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