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Inbox: RCB kürzt Rosenbauer-Kursziel


Rosenbauer
Akt. Indikation:  34.00 / 34.70
Uhrzeit:  18:48:16
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  -0.43%
Letzter SK:  34.50 ( 0.58%)

22.08.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: Rosenbauer (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Rosenbauer confirmed at HOLD, TP EUR 53 - Bumpy road to earnings recovery

- We cut the target price to EUR 53 from EUR 58 and maintain the HOLD rating
- In the aftermath of the 2Q results (profit warning was released two weeks before) we cut our earnings forecasts substantially
- 2017 EBIT margin should plummet to about 3% according to the guidance (we calculate an underlying margin of ca. 4%, still the lowest level on our record)
- We expect the new management team to introduce further efforts but acknowledge that more time will be needed until they can be presented to the market. We think that price pressure in the industry remains a big uncertainty
- We recommend staying on the sidelines as the risk-reward profile is not yet attractive enough. The share price still discounts a decent earnings recovery

We cut the target price to EUR 53 from EUR 58 and maintain the HOLD rating. In the aftermath of the 2Q results (profit warning was released two weeks before) we cut our earnings forecasts substantially. 2017 EBIT margin should plummet to about 3% according to the guidance (we calculate an underlying margin of ca. 4%, still the lowest level on our record), partly due to non-recurring charges, although the bulk of the burden stems from operational issues such as lower capacity utilisation and a weaker product mix. The guidance suggests that in 2H, apart from one-off items falling away, also the underlying business should improve sequentially. However, the fact that Rosenbauer has been struggling to reclaim historical profitability levels for several years now is more than ever evident. Although various cost-cutting and streamlining measures have been introduced, they did not translate into an inflection point so far, also with regard to cash conversion. We expect the new management team (CTO and CSO on Board, new CFO to follow in February) to introduce further efforts but acknowledge that more time will be needed until they can be presented to the market. On occasion of the 2Q figures management comments regarding the cost-cutting efforts were rather general, in our view, such as further reduction of man hours in vehicle assembly, adjustment of capacities (cessation of rented facilities), without attaching a concrete cost savings potential. We think that price pressure in the industry remains a big uncertainty, as anecdotal evidence suggests that some competitors are willing to accept even negative margins in tenders, thereby naturally exerting pressure also on Rosenbauers pricing strategy and limiting the cost savings retention. Summing up, while Rosenbauer sustains its premium position in the sector that is also mirrored by the Concept Fire Truck, we recommend staying on the sidelines for the time being as the risk-reward profile is not yet attractive enough. We are not fully convinced that the earnings revision cycle has already bottomed out (except for 2017e, although we see downside risk to the dividend) and see limited surprise potential in the short run. Moreover, our analysis suggests that the share price still discounts a decent earnings recovery, with a roughly 6% margin to be achieved in the medium term.
 
Forecasts substantially cut: We cut 2017e EBIT by 45% to EUR 28 mn, in line with the ~3% margin guidance, and EPS by 60% to EUR 1.52. For 2018-19e our new EBIT estimates are down 27% to EUR 42.5 mn (margin 4.6%) and 16% to EUR 54.5 mn (margin 5.7%), respectively. EPS are cut to EUR 3.11 (EUR 4.78) and EUR 4.54 (EUR 5.55), respectively.
 
Valuation: The total-return target price of EUR 53 (incl. DPS of EUR 1.20) is based on an equally weighted combination of an economic profit approach (based on a 2019e post-tax ROCE of 8% this method renders ca. EUR 45) and a DCF model (TG 1.5%, perpetual EBIT margin 5.8%, suggests approx. EUR 58.5).
       

Company im Artikel

Rosenbauer

 
Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Zykliker Österreich
Show latest Report (19.08.2017)
 
Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Rosenbauer-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Baader Bank AG, Erste Group Bank AG, Hudson River Trading Europe, Kepler Cheuvreux und Oddo Seydler Bank AG, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



Panther 6x6 (Airports Authority of India) : Rosenbauer International AG / Erstes Fahrzeug für Singapur, Großauftrag aus Indien : Fotocredit: Rosenbauer/Stummer © Aussendung



Aktien auf dem Radar:Agrana, Pierer Mobility, Warimpex, Immofinanz, CA Immo, Semperit, Bawag, EVN, OMV, Mayr-Melnhof, Linz Textil Holding, Josef Manner & Comp. AG, Wolford, Zumtobel, Oberbank AG Stamm, Polytec Group, Amag, Erste Group, EuroTeleSites AG, Flughafen Wien, Frequentis, Österreichische Post, Rosenbauer, S Immo, Telekom Austria, Uniqa, VIG, Wienerberger.

(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

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    Inbox: RCB kürzt Rosenbauer-Kursziel


    22.08.2017, 5048 Zeichen

    22.08.2017

    Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: Rosenbauer (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

    Rosenbauer confirmed at HOLD, TP EUR 53 - Bumpy road to earnings recovery

    - We cut the target price to EUR 53 from EUR 58 and maintain the HOLD rating
    - In the aftermath of the 2Q results (profit warning was released two weeks before) we cut our earnings forecasts substantially
    - 2017 EBIT margin should plummet to about 3% according to the guidance (we calculate an underlying margin of ca. 4%, still the lowest level on our record)
    - We expect the new management team to introduce further efforts but acknowledge that more time will be needed until they can be presented to the market. We think that price pressure in the industry remains a big uncertainty
    - We recommend staying on the sidelines as the risk-reward profile is not yet attractive enough. The share price still discounts a decent earnings recovery

    We cut the target price to EUR 53 from EUR 58 and maintain the HOLD rating. In the aftermath of the 2Q results (profit warning was released two weeks before) we cut our earnings forecasts substantially. 2017 EBIT margin should plummet to about 3% according to the guidance (we calculate an underlying margin of ca. 4%, still the lowest level on our record), partly due to non-recurring charges, although the bulk of the burden stems from operational issues such as lower capacity utilisation and a weaker product mix. The guidance suggests that in 2H, apart from one-off items falling away, also the underlying business should improve sequentially. However, the fact that Rosenbauer has been struggling to reclaim historical profitability levels for several years now is more than ever evident. Although various cost-cutting and streamlining measures have been introduced, they did not translate into an inflection point so far, also with regard to cash conversion. We expect the new management team (CTO and CSO on Board, new CFO to follow in February) to introduce further efforts but acknowledge that more time will be needed until they can be presented to the market. On occasion of the 2Q figures management comments regarding the cost-cutting efforts were rather general, in our view, such as further reduction of man hours in vehicle assembly, adjustment of capacities (cessation of rented facilities), without attaching a concrete cost savings potential. We think that price pressure in the industry remains a big uncertainty, as anecdotal evidence suggests that some competitors are willing to accept even negative margins in tenders, thereby naturally exerting pressure also on Rosenbauers pricing strategy and limiting the cost savings retention. Summing up, while Rosenbauer sustains its premium position in the sector that is also mirrored by the Concept Fire Truck, we recommend staying on the sidelines for the time being as the risk-reward profile is not yet attractive enough. We are not fully convinced that the earnings revision cycle has already bottomed out (except for 2017e, although we see downside risk to the dividend) and see limited surprise potential in the short run. Moreover, our analysis suggests that the share price still discounts a decent earnings recovery, with a roughly 6% margin to be achieved in the medium term.
     
    Forecasts substantially cut: We cut 2017e EBIT by 45% to EUR 28 mn, in line with the ~3% margin guidance, and EPS by 60% to EUR 1.52. For 2018-19e our new EBIT estimates are down 27% to EUR 42.5 mn (margin 4.6%) and 16% to EUR 54.5 mn (margin 5.7%), respectively. EPS are cut to EUR 3.11 (EUR 4.78) and EUR 4.54 (EUR 5.55), respectively.
     
    Valuation: The total-return target price of EUR 53 (incl. DPS of EUR 1.20) is based on an equally weighted combination of an economic profit approach (based on a 2019e post-tax ROCE of 8% this method renders ca. EUR 45) and a DCF model (TG 1.5%, perpetual EBIT margin 5.8%, suggests approx. EUR 58.5).
           

    Company im Artikel

    Rosenbauer

     
    Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Zykliker Österreich
    Show latest Report (19.08.2017)
     
    Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Rosenbauer-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Baader Bank AG, Erste Group Bank AG, Hudson River Trading Europe, Kepler Cheuvreux und Oddo Seydler Bank AG, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



    Panther 6x6 (Airports Authority of India) : Rosenbauer International AG / Erstes Fahrzeug für Singapur, Großauftrag aus Indien : Fotocredit: Rosenbauer/Stummer © Aussendung





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    Rosenbauer
    Akt. Indikation:  34.00 / 34.70
    Uhrzeit:  18:48:16
    Veränderung zu letztem SK:  -0.43%
    Letzter SK:  34.50 ( 0.58%)



     

    Bildnachweis

    1. Panther 6x6 (Airports Authority of India) : Rosenbauer International AG / Erstes Fahrzeug für Singapur, Großauftrag aus Indien : Fotocredit: Rosenbauer/Stummer , (© Aussendung)   >> Öffnen auf photaq.com

    Aktien auf dem Radar:Agrana, Pierer Mobility, Warimpex, Immofinanz, CA Immo, Semperit, Bawag, EVN, OMV, Mayr-Melnhof, Linz Textil Holding, Josef Manner & Comp. AG, Wolford, Zumtobel, Oberbank AG Stamm, Polytec Group, Amag, Erste Group, EuroTeleSites AG, Flughafen Wien, Frequentis, Österreichische Post, Rosenbauer, S Immo, Telekom Austria, Uniqa, VIG, Wienerberger.


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    Panther 6x6 (Airports Authority of India) : Rosenbauer International AG / Erstes Fahrzeug für Singapur, Großauftrag aus Indien : Fotocredit: Rosenbauer/Stummer, (© Aussendung)


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