09.08.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: Baader Helvea (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

    We upgrade Semperit from Hold to Buy. Our target price remains unchanged at EUR 30. Our new recommendation is based on two main assumptions: 1) Sempermed is a valuable asset. 2) The new management is able to stabilize the operations and establish a more decent strategy for the group. Regarding the Industrial activities, we think that the current product portfolio and customer relationships are good enough to reach double-digit EBIT margins in a normalized economic environment.

    Since 2010, Semperit invested heavily into its growth strategy with a questionable success. This was especially true for Sempermed. In 2012, Semperit bought Latex Partners and planned to increase production capacity to more than 10bn until 2018. We had a cautious view on that strategy. The expansion strategy was mainly financed by the operating cash flow, but the entire dividend payment of approximately EUR 230mn was financed out of substance. The EBIT margin declined. The quality of the balance sheet deteriorated, gearing increased from a net cash position above 60%.

    In 2017, the company ended a long-time joint venture in Thailand. The management will use the proceeds to wind down intangibles, finance the remaining high capex requirements and restore the quality of the balance sheet. Going forward, we expect them to be much more focused when it comes to expansion plans. Before they even think about that, they have to fix the loss-making Sempermed business. The company has reduced production guidance. The easing of raw material prices and the ongoing growth in demand (5-7%) should help. The other, much smaller, problem child Sempertrans might have seen its trough in the first half 2017. The closing of a plant in France and a slight increase in demand should lift profits going forward.

    We value Semperit in a sum-of-the-parts approach taking an average FY2 multiple for an EBITDA, which is approximately 15% above the consensus average. If the management decides to divest Sempermed, we think that they can get a decent price which might have an additional positive effect.

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Semperit

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