17.01.2018
Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: Berenberg Bank (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)
● We expect power prices to rally a further 15%, possibly as much as 30%: Verbund’s share price is highly correlated with the German/Austrian power price. It is well known that Verbund is one of the most highly sensitive utilities to the power price. We now forecast EPS 21%/34%/69% above consensus for 2019/2020/2021, respectively. Our DPS forecasts are even more bullish at 27%/90%/106%, respectively.
● Risk/reward skewed to the upside: Our blue-sky /black-sky scenarios yield 34% upside and 16% downside, respectively. The largest driver of our blue- /black-sky scenarios is a €5/t movement in carbon prices which has a +/- 15% impact on valuation.
● Austrian/German power prices are set to rally a further 15%: As discussed in detail in our sector report last week, we expect the carbon price to triple by 2020 to €21/t. Under our blue-sky scenario for carbon prices as high as €40/t, this could imply a 30% increase in power prices.
● Very sensitive to power prices: We expect a €5/MWh move in the power price will impact net income by 17% once its hedges roll off in 2019. 98% of Verbund’s output is geared to a power price hike; it is hydro which is low fixed-cost and completely CO2 free. Generation itself accounts for 65% of EBITDA (retail 19% and networks 16%). Verbund typically hedges for 18 months in advance. It is currently hedged at 74% for 2018 at €25/MWh and 43% for 2019 at €28/MWh. We expect its achieved power price to reach €42/MWh by 2021 from €30/MWh in 2017. Since hydro output should be in the region of 30 TWh, that implies an EBITDA boost of €360m, 40% of 2016’s level.
● We expect dividends to triple: Verbund targets a 40%-45% dividend payout ratio for 2017. We expect DPS to more than triple from €0.29 in 2016 to €1.10 by 2021. This assumes a payout ratio of 40%-45% is maintained through 2019; from 2020 we assume a normalised 60%, reflecting an improvement in credit metrics. Accompanying the doubling in EPS from 2017 to 2021 should be a DPS tripling. In our view, the balance sheet will be able to take it.
● Balance sheet improvement: The cash flow boost from higher power prices should feed through into reducing net debt by 41% from 2017E to 2021E. This, coupled with the 45% growth in EBITDA, will reduce gearing from 3.6x in 2016 to 1.3x in 2021E.
9417
berenberg-analysten_heben_kursziel_fur_den_verbund_an
Aktien auf dem Radar:CA Immo, Immofinanz, Wienerberger, Warimpex, Flughafen Wien, Austriacard Holdings AG, AT&S, UBM, ams-Osram, Cleen Energy, FACC, Frequentis, Semperit, S Immo, Wiener Privatbank, Oberbank AG Stamm, Amag, Agrana, Erste Group, EVN, Österreichische Post, Telekom Austria, Uniqa, VIG, Siemens Healthineers, Siemens Energy, RWE, Sartorius, Deutsche Post, Infineon, Rheinmetall.
(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)194696
inbox_berenberg-analysten_heben_kursziel_fur_den_verbund_an
stock3
Der Münchner FinTech-Vorreiter wurde im Jahr 2000 gegründet und bietet Privat- und Geschäftskunden IT-Lösungen und redaktionelle Inhalte. Bekannt ist die BörseGo AG für GodmodeTrader und Guidants. Das Portal GodmodeTrader bietet Web-Lösungen für Trading, Technische Analyse und Anlagestrategien. Guidants ist eine Finanzmarktanalyse- und Multi-Brokerage-Plattform.
>> Besuchen Sie 68 weitere Partner auf boerse-social.com/goboersewien
17.01.2018, 3795 Zeichen
17.01.2018
Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: Berenberg Bank (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)
● We expect power prices to rally a further 15%, possibly as much as 30%: Verbund’s share price is highly correlated with the German/Austrian power price. It is well known that Verbund is one of the most highly sensitive utilities to the power price. We now forecast EPS 21%/34%/69% above consensus for 2019/2020/2021, respectively. Our DPS forecasts are even more bullish at 27%/90%/106%, respectively.
● Risk/reward skewed to the upside: Our blue-sky /black-sky scenarios yield 34% upside and 16% downside, respectively. The largest driver of our blue- /black-sky scenarios is a €5/t movement in carbon prices which has a +/- 15% impact on valuation.
● Austrian/German power prices are set to rally a further 15%: As discussed in detail in our sector report last week, we expect the carbon price to triple by 2020 to €21/t. Under our blue-sky scenario for carbon prices as high as €40/t, this could imply a 30% increase in power prices.
● Very sensitive to power prices: We expect a €5/MWh move in the power price will impact net income by 17% once its hedges roll off in 2019. 98% of Verbund’s output is geared to a power price hike; it is hydro which is low fixed-cost and completely CO2 free. Generation itself accounts for 65% of EBITDA (retail 19% and networks 16%). Verbund typically hedges for 18 months in advance. It is currently hedged at 74% for 2018 at €25/MWh and 43% for 2019 at €28/MWh. We expect its achieved power price to reach €42/MWh by 2021 from €30/MWh in 2017. Since hydro output should be in the region of 30 TWh, that implies an EBITDA boost of €360m, 40% of 2016’s level.
● We expect dividends to triple: Verbund targets a 40%-45% dividend payout ratio for 2017. We expect DPS to more than triple from €0.29 in 2016 to €1.10 by 2021. This assumes a payout ratio of 40%-45% is maintained through 2019; from 2020 we assume a normalised 60%, reflecting an improvement in credit metrics. Accompanying the doubling in EPS from 2017 to 2021 should be a DPS tripling. In our view, the balance sheet will be able to take it.
● Balance sheet improvement: The cash flow boost from higher power prices should feed through into reducing net debt by 41% from 2017E to 2021E. This, coupled with the 45% growth in EBITDA, will reduce gearing from 3.6x in 2016 to 1.3x in 2021E.
9417
berenberg-analysten_heben_kursziel_fur_den_verbund_an
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, (© Josef Chladek/photaq.com) >> Öffnen auf photaq.com
Aktien auf dem Radar:CA Immo, Immofinanz, Wienerberger, Warimpex, Flughafen Wien, Austriacard Holdings AG, AT&S, UBM, ams-Osram, Cleen Energy, FACC, Frequentis, Semperit, S Immo, Wiener Privatbank, Oberbank AG Stamm, Amag, Agrana, Erste Group, EVN, Österreichische Post, Telekom Austria, Uniqa, VIG, Siemens Healthineers, Siemens Energy, RWE, Sartorius, Deutsche Post, Infineon, Rheinmetall.
stock3
Der Münchner FinTech-Vorreiter wurde im Jahr 2000 gegründet und bietet Privat- und Geschäftskunden IT-Lösungen und redaktionelle Inhalte. Bekannt ist die BörseGo AG für GodmodeTrader und Guidants. Das Portal GodmodeTrader bietet Web-Lösungen für Trading, Technische Analyse und Anlagestrategien. Guidants ist eine Finanzmarktanalyse- und Multi-Brokerage-Plattform.
>> Besuchen Sie 68 weitere Partner auf boerse-social.com/partner
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