Erste mit Accumulate zu OMV

- The collapse of the crude oil price and reshuffle of management sent the stock reeling. OMV price is down almost 40% this year, driven by the crude oil price and uncertainty over management. We believe that the stock price already reflects the collapse of the crude oil price – the stock trades at a valuation of 3.7x 2015F EV/EBITDA at a 70 USD/bbl estimated crude oil price for the next year.

- CAPEX may be guided down – more information in February. OMV may be cutting its EUR 3.9bn CAPEX for 2015 and may change their production guidance due to the fall of the crude oil price. The company intends to spend EUR 700mn on exploration & appraisal, which is likely to be reduced. With our crude price estimate path and former CAPEX guidance, we believe OMV’s net gearing would rise to 38% by end-2016.

- OMV has high sensitivity to the crude oil price. OMV is the stock that has the highest exposure to crude oil prices changes. The company estimates some EUR 42mn change in EBITDA for every dollar change in the crude oil price from the 100 USD/bbl level.

- Accumulate maintained; new management and oil price are the key risks. We keep our Accumulate call on the stock with a new target price of EUR 24.9. Management and the crude oil price are the key ST risks.

(Erste Group)

OMV

OMV
>> Bildauswahl durch die BSNgine, zum Originalzusammenhang

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voestalpine

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>> Bildauswahl durch die BSNgine, zum Originalzusammenhang

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