Inbox: Nach dem Kursminus ist Semperit für RCB jetzt ein Hold

>> Next Inbox: Immofinanz: RCB sieht keinen Grund für ein Re-Rating und bleibt auf Reduce


Semperit
Akt. Indikation:  13.50 / 13.70
Uhrzeit:  08:10:22
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  8.80%
Letzter SK:  12.50 ( -4.29%)

12.12.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Semperit raised to HOLD, TP EUR 23.5 - Upgrade to HOLD after share price weakness 

- We upgrade Semperit to HOLD from REDUCE as the share price has fallen towards our unchanged target price of EUR 23.5
- 2017e will be a year to forget, shaped by a weak underlying performance and massively distorted by one-off
- All eyes remain centred on the restructuring steps to be implemented in the wake of the strategy review that should be completed by the end of 2Q 18
- No details are available so far but purchasing/procurement, the penetration of new markets are core pillars. We also expect further restructuring of the production footprint
- The focus topic remains the Sempermed segment. While we assume that cost cutting could bring the business back to a low to mid-single-digit EBIT margin, we also think that a divestment is a serious option
- We acknowledge that the turnaround story is tempting but also argue that the share price still discounts a substantial earnings recovery. We expect a tripling of EBIT in 2018e and almost a doubling yoy in 2019e

We upgrade Semperit to HOLD from REDUCE as the share price has fallen towards our unchanged target price of EUR 23.5. 2017e will be a year to forget, shaped by a weak underlying performance and massively distorted by one-off effects (potentially more to come in 4Q). Thus, all eyes remain centred on the restructuring steps to be implemented by the new management. The strategy review supported by a consultancy firm commenced in October and should be completed by the end of 2Q 18. For the time being the management does not provide insight on the specific restructuring areas/measures and associated costs (apart from the general hint that significant charges could occur). However, it is apparent that a more efficient purchasing/procurement organisation and streamlined logistics are core pillars and that the penetration of new markets and customer industries is mulled in order to beef up the growth profile. Moreover, we also expect further restructuring of the production footprint in order to enhance economies of scale in the production. For the time being we think that Semperit appears largely fairly valued. We acknowledge that the turnaround story is tempting but also argue that the share price still discounts a substantial earnings recovery, which suggests that not every savings measure announced will lead to upgrades of market forecasts. On our forecasts (we expect a tripling of EBIT in 2018e and almost a doubling yoy in 2019e) we find the stock trading at a 2019e P/E of 14.7x, a single-digit discount to the peer group. The stock admittedly looks attractive on EV/EBITDA of 6.6x which offers a 30% discount, but its EV/EBIT of 11.1x is almost in line with the peer group.

Quo vadis Sempermed turnaround and/or divestment? The focus topic, however, remains the Sempermed segment, which should record the second consecutive year in red figures in 2017e (excl. one-offs, 2015 was about break-even if the Thai JV contribution is stripped out). While we assume that cost cutting could bring the business back to a low to mid-single-digit EBIT margin, we see limitations to a higher profitability (median of ~9% in the decade before Latexx Partners acquisition) given scale disadvantages and price pressure from its Asian competitors. Moreover, from a ROCE and cash conversion point of view the Malaysian operations are likely to remain dilutive. We think that a divestment is a serious option which would free up management capacity, enable a stronger growth focus on the industrial businesses and would restore Semperits financial flexibility (we assume an increase of net debt towards ca. EUR 190 mn in 2018e excl. cash drain from further restructuring initiatives).

Valuation: The total-return target price of EUR 23.5 (incl. DPS of EUR 0.30) is based on an equally weighted economic profit method and a DCF model. While the former approach renders a fair value of about EUR 21, the latter suggests approximately EUR 25.

Company im Artikel

Semperit

Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Semperit-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Hudson River Trading Europe, Virtu Financial Ireland Limited und Wood & Company Financial Services, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



Semperit © finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper



Aktien auf dem Radar:Flughafen Wien, Addiko Bank, DO&CO, Austriacard Holdings AG, RHI Magnesita, Zumtobel, Bawag, AT&S, CA Immo, Kapsch TrafficCom, Marinomed Biotech, Mayr-Melnhof, OMV, Polytec Group, RBI, Rosenbauer, SBO, Semperit, Oberbank AG Stamm, Agrana, Erste Group, FACC, Wienerberger, Amag, Österreichische Post, Telekom Austria, Uniqa, VIG, ATX, DAX, Fresenius.

(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Immofinanz: RCB sieht keinen Grund für ein Re-Rating und bleibt auf Reduce


12.12.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

IMMOFINANZ confirmed at REDUCE, TP EUR 2.00 - Restart of merger discussions with CA Immo

- RCB earnings estimates and NAV forecasts are broadly unchanged
- Profitability of the group remains very low despite the sale of Russia
- We see the values of EMPARK Business Park in Warsaw at risk
- IMMOFINANZ trades at very demanding valuation multiples based on RCBe

3Q 17 results were mixed and showed the very slim profitability of IMMOFINANZ despite the significant reduction of vacancy rates, the painful sale of the Russian business and employee cost savings. Following the closing of the sale of the Russian portfolio the management is likely to resume discussions about a potential merger with CA Immo and we reckon that the prospective synergies and the share exchange ratio could be announced on April 4, 2018e at the earliest. Meanwhile, we keep our rating at REDUCE for IMMOFINANZ with an unchanged target price of EUR 2.00 due to broadly unchanged estimates and very demanding valuation multiples.
 
Fair or unfair property values: On December 7, 2017, IMMOFINANZ closed the sale (share deal) of the entire retail portfolio in Moscow to the Russian FORT Group. The implied disposal price for the gross assets amounts to EUR 750 mn, which is a massive EUR 226 mn below the fair value of the property assets in 2Q 17 and that was disappointing. Assets of EUR 150.2 mn for the Polish EMPARK Mokotow Business Park were classified as a disposal group in April 2016. In 3Q 17 the management now de-facto admits that only one out of a total of nine buildings can realistically be sold at fair value. We see a risk that either the values of this particular asset are overstated or significant investments are necessary in order to upgrade it.
 
Weak profitability: The adjusted EBITDA margin (excl. results of property sales) was up sequentially to 38.9% in 3Q 17 but that is very weak in comparison to Austrian peers. We think the current level of the adj. EBITDA margin at IMMOFINANZ is low although the vacancy rate of the portfolio improved from 15.8% in 2014/15 to 7.1% in 3Q 17, the Russian portfolio has been sold and the group realised employee cost savings. Recurring earnings (FFO I) of EUR 3.5 mn were in positive territory but still very low3Q 17. Adding one quarter of annual dividend payments received (EUR 5.3 mn) would lead to EUR 8.8 mn of recurring earnings in 3Q 17, which implies an annualised return on EPRA NAV of 1%, which we think is still meagre. Using our FFO I estimate of EUR 96 mn for 2019e the RoNAV is still below 3%.
 
Demanding valuation: Our unchanged target price of EUR 2.00 is based on the average of DCF and RoNAV valuation methods as shown in more detail later in this report. In terms of P/FFO 2018e the group trades at 31.0x, which is far ahead of the peers average and in terms of EV/EBITDA 2018e IMMOFINANZ is also trading at a significant premium of 27.9x against a peers average of 21.3x. Given the current poor profitability excluding Russia and despite the expected improvement of earnings until 2019e we see no reason for further re-rating of the stock.
       


Companies im Artikel
CA Immo
Akt. Indikation:  22.28 / 22.92
Uhrzeit:  08:28:19
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  9.60%
Letzter SK:  20.62 ( -5.59%)

Immofinanz
Akt. Indikation:  17.07 / 17.26
Uhrzeit:  08:28:20
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  4.03%
Letzter SK:  16.50 ( -1.61%)

Immofinanz - VIVO! Krosno Opening - (Fotocredit: Immofinanz) © Aussendung


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    Inbox: Nach dem Kursminus ist Semperit für RCB jetzt ein Hold


    12.12.2017, 5102 Zeichen

    12.12.2017

    Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

    Semperit raised to HOLD, TP EUR 23.5 - Upgrade to HOLD after share price weakness 

    - We upgrade Semperit to HOLD from REDUCE as the share price has fallen towards our unchanged target price of EUR 23.5
    - 2017e will be a year to forget, shaped by a weak underlying performance and massively distorted by one-off
    - All eyes remain centred on the restructuring steps to be implemented in the wake of the strategy review that should be completed by the end of 2Q 18
    - No details are available so far but purchasing/procurement, the penetration of new markets are core pillars. We also expect further restructuring of the production footprint
    - The focus topic remains the Sempermed segment. While we assume that cost cutting could bring the business back to a low to mid-single-digit EBIT margin, we also think that a divestment is a serious option
    - We acknowledge that the turnaround story is tempting but also argue that the share price still discounts a substantial earnings recovery. We expect a tripling of EBIT in 2018e and almost a doubling yoy in 2019e

    We upgrade Semperit to HOLD from REDUCE as the share price has fallen towards our unchanged target price of EUR 23.5. 2017e will be a year to forget, shaped by a weak underlying performance and massively distorted by one-off effects (potentially more to come in 4Q). Thus, all eyes remain centred on the restructuring steps to be implemented by the new management. The strategy review supported by a consultancy firm commenced in October and should be completed by the end of 2Q 18. For the time being the management does not provide insight on the specific restructuring areas/measures and associated costs (apart from the general hint that significant charges could occur). However, it is apparent that a more efficient purchasing/procurement organisation and streamlined logistics are core pillars and that the penetration of new markets and customer industries is mulled in order to beef up the growth profile. Moreover, we also expect further restructuring of the production footprint in order to enhance economies of scale in the production. For the time being we think that Semperit appears largely fairly valued. We acknowledge that the turnaround story is tempting but also argue that the share price still discounts a substantial earnings recovery, which suggests that not every savings measure announced will lead to upgrades of market forecasts. On our forecasts (we expect a tripling of EBIT in 2018e and almost a doubling yoy in 2019e) we find the stock trading at a 2019e P/E of 14.7x, a single-digit discount to the peer group. The stock admittedly looks attractive on EV/EBITDA of 6.6x which offers a 30% discount, but its EV/EBIT of 11.1x is almost in line with the peer group.

    Quo vadis Sempermed turnaround and/or divestment? The focus topic, however, remains the Sempermed segment, which should record the second consecutive year in red figures in 2017e (excl. one-offs, 2015 was about break-even if the Thai JV contribution is stripped out). While we assume that cost cutting could bring the business back to a low to mid-single-digit EBIT margin, we see limitations to a higher profitability (median of ~9% in the decade before Latexx Partners acquisition) given scale disadvantages and price pressure from its Asian competitors. Moreover, from a ROCE and cash conversion point of view the Malaysian operations are likely to remain dilutive. We think that a divestment is a serious option which would free up management capacity, enable a stronger growth focus on the industrial businesses and would restore Semperits financial flexibility (we assume an increase of net debt towards ca. EUR 190 mn in 2018e excl. cash drain from further restructuring initiatives).

    Valuation: The total-return target price of EUR 23.5 (incl. DPS of EUR 0.30) is based on an equally weighted economic profit method and a DCF model. While the former approach renders a fair value of about EUR 21, the latter suggests approximately EUR 25.

    Company im Artikel

    Semperit

    Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Semperit-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Hudson River Trading Europe, Virtu Financial Ireland Limited und Wood & Company Financial Services, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



    Semperit © finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper





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    Semperit
    Akt. Indikation:  13.50 / 13.70
    Uhrzeit:  08:10:22
    Veränderung zu letztem SK:  8.80%
    Letzter SK:  12.50 ( -4.29%)



     

    Bildnachweis

    1. Semperit , (© finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper)   >> Öffnen auf photaq.com

    Aktien auf dem Radar:Flughafen Wien, Addiko Bank, DO&CO, Austriacard Holdings AG, RHI Magnesita, Zumtobel, Bawag, AT&S, CA Immo, Kapsch TrafficCom, Marinomed Biotech, Mayr-Melnhof, OMV, Polytec Group, RBI, Rosenbauer, SBO, Semperit, Oberbank AG Stamm, Agrana, Erste Group, FACC, Wienerberger, Amag, Österreichische Post, Telekom Austria, Uniqa, VIG, ATX, DAX, Fresenius.


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    Do&Co
    Als Österreichisches, börsennotiertes Unternehmen mit den drei Geschäftsbereichen Airline Catering, internationales Event Catering und Restaurants, Lounges & Hotel bieten wir Gourmet Entertainment auf der ganzen Welt. Wir betreiben 32 Locations in 12 Ländern auf 3 Kontinenten, um die höchsten Standards im Produkt- sowie Service-Bereich umsetzen zu können.

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    Semperit, (© finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper)


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