08.08.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Erste delivered solid 2Q earnings characterised by very low risk costs in most countries (except for additional Agrokor-related provisioning). Thus we have further reduced our COR assumptions to 19 bps for 2017e/26 bps for 2018e and expect the group to reach the previous COR guidance of 30 bps onlyafter 2018e. We have also raised our NII forecast pencilling in last weeks CNB rate hike and the CZK appreciation effect. At the same time, we also raise our opex forecasts on wage inflation in most CEE countries and CZK appreciation. We thus increase our EPS assumptions for 2017e/18e by 6% (4% in 2019e accounting for a further AT1 issue). and hike our DPS forecast to EUR 1.20 (based on 1H dividend accrual) and assume a gradual increase in 2018e/19e. This We therefore raise our TP to EUR 38.0 (from EUR 33.50) and confirm our HOLD recommendation. On our TP Erste trades at 1.4x Tangible Book Value and at a ROTE of 11.0% (assumed stable 17-19e). As we expect NIM normalization to be countered by COR normalization (over-the cycle COR 60 bps) we would not reckon with further ROTE expansion and therefore remain neutral on the stock at the current price level.

2Q earnings beat on risk costs and NII: The 2Q bottom-line came in at EUR 362 mn, 8% above our and consensus estimates on net positive risk costs in several countries (esp. AT Retail, CZ, HU) and a slightly better than expected NII. Overall numbers should be clean of significant one-off effects on a net basis with Austrian Other results impacted by mortgage provisioning related to the AT Supreme Court ruling on passing on negative rates (EUR 45 mn, net impact <20 mn) partly offset by unusually high other operating gains in HU and AT corporates. While NII slightly exceeded our estimates (TLTRO in AT, Citibank portfolio inclusion in HU), F&C fared weaker than forecast (in AT retail and CZ). On a segment/country level AT, CZ, HU and SK fared better than expected, while the bottom-lines in HR and RO came in below our estimates.

Capital trends without main surprises; higher dividend accrual: CET1 B3 FL stood at 12.8% (vs. 12.8% in 4Q, 12.5% in 1Q) on inclusion of 1H profits, but also impacted by higher RWA (RO IRB impact, higher operational risk). Tang. BPS remained flat qoq at EUR 25.3 digesting dividend payment and negative AFS valuation effects, but supported by CZK appreciation. The 1H dividend accrual implies a 2017 DPS guidance of EUR 1.2. Based on slightly increased DPS estimates (45% pay-out ratio), 4% RWA growth and a 35 bps IFRS 9 impact we expect Erstes CET1 ratio (fully loaded) to remain stable at 13.0% over the next years.

Erste Group

7173

rcb_setzt_erste_group-kursziel_etwas_hoher_an

182138

inbox_rcb_setzt_erste_group-kursziel_etwas_hoher_an