31.07.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Despite raising the target price to EUR 42 from EUR 37.5 we downgrade Palfinger to HOLD from BUY. The company released 2Q results that met expectations but did not provide a new catalyst, in our view. The management confirmed the positive 2017 outlook of new record sales and an adjusted EBIT margin of 10%. We think that Palfinger is well on track to deliver on these targets, but we do not envisage a material over-delivery. Management comments regarding trading conditions and order development in the Land segment surely warrant confidence in a sound operational and financial performance in the coming quarters. Nevertheless, we think this is meanwhile well reflected in the forecasts. While the organic decline of the Sea division is assumed to level out (5% decline in 1H was deemed a good proxy for 2H), the awaited demand recovery is not yet kicking in. Moreover restructuring/integration efforts will be only completed until year-end. Following the stocks ytd performance of more than 40% (amid almost unchanged consensus earnings forecasts) and the scope for limited surprise potential in the short run, we think that the re-rating should be largely completed. We acknowledge that most trading multiples still show a discount to the peer group (the gap has narrowed but not closed in recent months). Palfinger shares are valued in line to at a small premium to the long-term median P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples. 2017-18 P/Es of 16.1x (adjusted) and 14.1x are slightly above the median of 16.0x and 13.1x, respectively, over the last 7 years. The long-term EV/EBITDA medians of 10.0x (1y fwd) and 8.4x (2y fwd) are in line with current trading multiples of 9.6x and 7.9x, respectively. Our target price implies a 2018e P/E of 15x, EV/EBITDA of 9.3x and EV/EBIT of 12.4x.

2Q 17 results wrap-up: Revenues of EUR 392 mn imply sequentially stable growth of 13% (organic ca. +3%). The Land segment grew 7%, whereas Sea rose 62% (organic -6%). EBIT adjusted for restructuring charges improved by 3% to EUR 40.5 mn (incl. EUR 1.2 mn one-off gain, margin 10.3% vs. 11.3% in 2Q 16). The company digested one-off costs of EUR 5.2 mn (resulting in a burden of restructuring costs of EUR 10.3 mn in 1H) and thus stated EBIT essentially stagnated yoy at EUR 35.3 mn. EPS of EUR 0.51 (-10% yoy) imply a slightly double-digit miss vs. RCBe and consensus of EUR 0.58) due to a weaker financial result and higher minorities.
 

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Palfinger

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