Berenberg sieht Ansteckungsgefahr bei Erste Group (Sell), Hold für Deutsche Bank

Erste Group Bank AG (Banking – Sell; PT EUR14.00)

Contagion risk: In this note, we revisit our Sell case on Erste, addressing the key investor push-backs. We believe Erste is not a restructuring opportunity. While we are in line with consensus on loan losses, we are below consensus on revenue growth. We forecast a sustainable return on equity of 8% compared to 11% for consensus. We believe Erste should be trading at a significant discount to TBV. In the short term, its risk premium may continue to increase following the solvency issues of its domestic peer, Raiffeisen, which could affect the entire Austrian banking sector.

Deutsche Bank AG (Banking – Hold; PT EUR26.00)

Costs and capital key to outperformance: We see Deutsche Bank remaining rangebound until we obtain clarity on future strategy, which is due at some point in Q215. For us, the key to the strategy will be a recognition of the secular trends and structural changes facing the industry. In operational terms, this means a focus on return on equity, costs and capital return, if it wants to outperform and close its discount to TBV.

Deutsche Bank

Erste Group

(c) Berenberg
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Vor Europas Markstart: Die Indizes auf einen Blick

Quelle: Vanilla Capital .

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