"Strong 1H 13 orders fuel further growth

- Strong 2Q 13 volume and bounce back to decent operating profitability
- FY 14/15e EPS increased by 10% and 5% 
- TP increased from EUR 55.00 to EUR 60.00 - "Hold" confirmed

On the back of overall impressive 1H 13 order intake levels, clearly supporting mid-term sales volumes, we increased our FY 14/15e EPS projections by 10% and 5% respectively, raising our DCF-based 12-months TP from EUR 55.00 to EUR 60.00, while sticking to our Hold recommendation, owing to limited upside from current trading levels.

2Q 13 financials recap: We liked the surprisingly strong sales volume in 2Q 13, largely attributable to international shipments. Especially the US business picked up quite well, showing a satisfactory capacity utilization rate due to high volumes of orders on hand (2Q 13 US sales +25% yoy, EBIT margin 6.8% vs. 4.7% in 2Q 12). According to company information also the troubled subsidiary in Spain showed an increase in revenues. However, the business environment in Germany and the rest of Europe stayed tough on ongoing high price pressure (2Q 13 Germany sales +19% yoy, EBIT margin 1.7% vs. 3.2% in 2Q 12).

Overall 2Q 13 group profitability was clearly supported by higher volumes from international orders providing increased fixed-cost coverage (2Q 13 Austria and international sales +17% yoy, EBIT margin 6.7% vs. 4.5% in 2Q 12). The financial result shows a one-off gain from FX derivatives around EUR 0.5 mn. A slightly higher 2Q 13 tax and minorities position both result from the stronger US business booked during the quarter.

FY 13e outlook: Based on the high volumes in 1H 13, Rosenbauer confirmed, assuming that there are no delays in shipments, its previous FY 13e guidance of sales around EUR 700 mn. Similar to 4Q 12 (4Q 12 sales EUR 215 mn) the company reckons with exceptionally high levels of shipments in the last quarter. The company further reckons with an improvement to the 6% EBIT margin achieved in FY 12, however, also notes fierce price competition on their European core markets.

Newsflow: In a recent interview the CEO mentioned a couple a couple of potential major orders from outside of Europe, totalling around EUR 50 mn, which could fuel order intake in 3Q 13.

Recommendation: We increased our FY 14/15e EPS projections by 10% and 5% respectively, raising our DCF-based 12-months TP from EUR 55.00 to EUR 60.00 (incl. FY 13e DPS of EUR 1.20). Owing to the recently strong share price performance, we stick to our Hold for the time being, owing to limited upside from current levels. However, we would clearly recommend to buy-in again in case of a temporary weakness of the share around levels of EUR 55.00. "

Christian Drastil: Wiener Börse Plausch

kapitalmarkt-stimme.at daily voice 93/365: 1. Wortspende zu Aktien aus einer Regierungspartei. Sie ist positiv, danke Sophie Wotschke!

Bildnachweis

1. Rosenbauer Panther.

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