02.02.2018

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: Baader Bank (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Die Analysten der Baader Bank bestätigen Atrium Real Estate mit Hold, erhöhen das Kursziel aber von 3,9 auf 4,1 Euro. Für die Analysten ist Atrium ein guter Dividenden-Titel, allerdings erachten sie das Wachstum zu schwach. 

- We confirm our Hold rating and increase our TP to EUR 4.10 (prev. EUR 3.90) based on higher FFO estimates. In our view, Atrium will remain a good dividend play (with the potential of further special dividends if no acquisitions are done) but not more since overall it will remain difficult to show noticeable growth for the company. Like-for-like (lfl) rent growth in its core markets (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia) is only 1-2% p.a., while Russia is likely to remain a volatile market (and may therefore be exited).Currently, the main FFO drivers are a) the cost savings program of EUR 10mn p.a. and b) growth in Russia (27% lfl net rental income growth in 9M17). At the current RUB/EUR exchange rate of ~70 however, further cuts inincentives are probably difficult. Overall, we expect an FFO growth of ~4% p.a. for 2017-20E, which is below our coverage average of ~6% p.a. The total shareholder value return (TSVR) of 6.8% p.a. is much in-line with our coverage average. Considering the pure exposure to Eastern Europe including Russia, an above average growth would be required, in our view.

- Factors to watch: We believe that the company will pay another special dividend in case no larger acquisition is done over the next 2-3 quarters (we assume a EUR 100mn acquisition to take place in 2018E). Atrium’s ~60%shareholder, Gazit Globe, continues to target an increase in its direct ownership in real estate. However, with an LTV of ~54%, financing may be an issue. As improving the credit rating is one target of Gazit Globe, we would put more attention on the topic in the event that Atrium sells its Russian assets (as that would stabilize Atrium’s cash flow).

- Change in estimates: We increase our FFO forecasts by 10% for 2017E (better development in Russia, lower overhead costs), by 6% in 2018E and by 4% in 2019E. Our dividend forecast for 2018E reflecting the company guidance of a stable dividend.

- Valuation: At our TP, the discount to NAV 2019E is 27%, the dividend yield (2018E) is 6.6% and the FFO yield (2019E) is 8.5%.

Atrium Park, Budapest - bis Mitte bzw. Ende 2017 insgesamt rund 18.000 m² Mietfläche vermietet (Foto: Immofinanz)

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