13.03.2020, 1981 Zeichen
Air travel is in the centre of the storm and is strongly impacted by the cancellation of conferences and events as well as by plummeting business and holiday travel. Passenger growth at Vienna Airport slumped significantly as of the last week of February. After reporting passenger growth of 14.4% yoy in January the yoy comparison dropped to -15.8% on March 2, the last available data point.
Home carrier Austrian Airlines (43% market share at Vienna Airport) announced to cut capacities on European routes by 20%. European traffic accounts for 85% of total passengers. Hence, the cut represents roughly 17% of capacity. Flights to Italy were cut by 40%. For the time being, this measure will apply until the end of the winter schedule at the end of March. Flights to China and Iran are completely suspended.
On March 2 Flughafen Wien addressed high uncertainty to its previously (end of January) published FY 20 guidance but stated to see the traffic and earnings guidance still achievable adding that a better assessment will be possible in four to six weeks. A cost-cutting program will be introduced to cushion the negative effects. In light of the latest developments we see especially the passenger and revenue guidance as hard to achieve. The implications for bookings in the summer holiday season will be key for the negative implications on FY 20e numbers.
From a historical point of view, such external shocks have only resulted in a temporary
reduction of growth. After the slump of air travel following the terrorist attacks on September 11 in 2011 passenger growth at Vienna Airport recovered strongly as of 4Q 02. In 4Q 02 passenger numbers increased by 14.5% yoy and in FY 03 by 6.8%. In the aftermath of the financial crisis (passenger numbers declined by 6-15% in 4Q 08 – 3Q 09) the number of passengers recovered by 8.7% yoy in FY 10 and 7.2% yoy in FY 11.
( Bernd Maurer, RCB)
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