Corona: What AT&S tells us so far (RCB)
13.03.2020, 1386 Zeichen
AT&S has already issued a profit warning for 2019/20 based on production stops in its Chinese factories in Shanghai and Chongqing II, which factored in three to four weeks of outages and slow ramps. The revenue guidance was cut from flat yoy (i.e. EUR 1,028 mn) to EUR 960 mn and the EBITDA margin range was reduced to 18-20% from 20-25%, which translates into a sales impact of about EUR 70 mn and an EBITDA impact of EUR 14-33 mn, according to our estimates.
Estimates by industry research company IDC from mid-February suggest a drag on Chinese ITC markets overall in 1Q 20, with the slowdown fading out in 2Q and normalising in 2H 20.
Looking at smartphones alone, which account for the lion's share of AT&S's revenues, the smartphone market is expected to decline by 2.3% in volume terms in 2020, down from an earlier forecast of +1.5% (dating back from November 2019). The 1H 2020 decline is estimated at a whopping 10.6% yoy. IDC's probable scenario calls for a multi-quarter recovery in manufacturing and a gradual return of Chinese workers to factories amidst persisting transportation challenges. It also includes a demand shock in China that extends several quarters but is mitigated with the aid of government-backed stimuli and subsidies by the end of the year.
(Teresa Schinwald, RCB)
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