Die Analysten der Berenberg Bank sehen nach wie vor keinen Silberstreif am Horizont bei Zumtobel und bestätigen ihre Sell-Empfehlung. Das Kursziel wandert noch tiefer auf 8,00 Euro von 9,50 Euro. Auch die Umsatzschätzungen und die EBIT-Marge wird reduziert.

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●  Troubles continue: As we anticipated in our last note, Zumtobel issued another profit warning on 24 January and cut both its sales and EBIT outlook for the full year. We do not expect Zumtobel to recover from its worries in the short term. The company is burdened by internal operating issues and faces an increasingly difficult market environment.

●  Uncertainty persists: We believe that the uncertainty about Zumtobel’s long-term strategy will persist. Both the CEO and the CFO offered to resign in January. CEO Schumacher is leaving the company as of 1 February, and CFO Sonnenmoser will depart in June 2018. We believe that internal strategic disagreements are leading to production delays, with negative consequences for revenues and profitability. Alfred Felder will act as interim CEO in addition to his role of Chief Sales Officer.

●  UK falling further: We estimate the UK lighting market to be down c10% (3-4% volume decline, c6-7% price decline), with Zumtobel hit particularly hard, as its UK sales declined c30%. We believe that larger projects are still being delayed and pricing is becoming increasingly difficult as continental European peers are pushing into the market. The UK is Zumtobel’s largest single market, at an estimated cEUR250m in sales (c20% of total).

●  Pricing pressure: Pricing in other European markets also remains tough and pressure has not eased as expected by management. This affects both components and luminaires. We estimate that pricing pressure for components has intensified from c5-10% to 10%. In addition, Zumtobel faces 5-6% pricing pressure at broadly constant COGS in lighting.

●  Cutting our estimates: We lower our outlook for Zumtobel’s sales growth and EBIT margins. We had forecast EUR39m in adjusted EBIT and a 5% decline in revenues. Our revised estimates factor in cEUR20m in adjusted EBIT and an 8.3% decline in revenues. We cut our adjusted EBIT estimates by c40% on average. Management has reduced its full-year outlook for adjusted EBIT to EUR15m-25m (previously EUR50m-60m) and revenues are expected to decline 8% (previously 5% decline).

●  Recovery not in sight: We lower our price target to EUR8.00 and reiterate our Sell rating. We believe that Zumtobel will be unable to overcome its strategic issues in the medium term, and therefore cut our sales and profitability outlook. The company will report Q3 results on 6 March.