12.12.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: Baader Helvea (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Baader Bank zu ams - (Hold/TP CHF 72.00) - Analyst day 2017: Building the global leader in optical sensor solutions

Our conclusion

    Feedback from today’s ams 2017 analyst and investor day is generally positive. While the company just confirmed existing guidance for 2017 and 2019 (>40% sales CAGR 2016-2019E, adj. EBIT margin of 30% from 2019), management indicated that additional data points in the next months could support guidance upside (2019). Please note that 2019 guidance is based on existing projects only, i.e. not including potential 3D sensing related sales into the Android smartphone camp nor sales with VCSEL lasers. While ams today is primarily a components supplier for Apple ’s 3D sensing solution in the iPhone X, the company targets to be able to ship a more comprehensive offering including imaging sensors and VCSEL by 2019 (supporting structured light based as well as indirect time-of-flight based solutions). ams does not expect that other smartphone makers will be able to catch up with Apple in terms of 3D sensing before 2019, eventually even not before 2020. We believe that supported by the acquisition tour over the past years as well as the recently announced partnership with Sunny Optotech, ams is in a strong position to become the leading independent 3D sensing solution provider for consumer applications within the next two to three years, with the potential to leverage the position into the automotive and industrial markets.

Facts & Analysis

    ams is focusing on four key growth pillars: optical sensors, imaging sensors, environmental sensors and audio sensors, which account for more than 80% of sales in 2017E (>90% in 2020E). While growth related to the four pillars is anticipated to be driven by consumer applications in the short term, ams expects a stronger contribution from automotive, industrial and medical over the medium term. New growth areas beyond the current consumer, automotive, industrial and medical applications include optical spectral sensors used for skin tone matching, color matching in e-commerce and food analysis.

    CEO Alexander Everke, who joined ams in 2015 from NXP, has built up a new leadership team consisting of numerous colleagues from his former employer NXP. All four core divisions are now led by former NXP managers as well as the heads of sales, operations and human resources joined from NXP.

    ams has successfully ramped-up manufacturing to support 3D sensing functionality (Face ID) in the new iPhone X. In this context the number of employees increased from about 2,500 a year ago to more than 10,000 worldwide (of which about 8,000 in Singapore). 

    ams forecasts 44% CAGR for the 3D sensing market 2017E-2022E. The consumer segment is expected to remain responsible for the vast majority of the market with 74% CAGR (3D sensing on the front and back of mobile devices including smartphones and tablets). Automotive adaption of 3D sensing is estimated to accelerate beyond 2022 driven by lidar for autonomous driving and driver authentication/monitoring. In terms of 3D sensing technologies ams sees use cases for structured light as well as indirect time-of-flight solutions, with both to be offered by ams from 2019.

    Following the acquisition of VCSEL (vertical cavity surface emitting laser) company Princeton Optronics earlier this year ams confirmed that it will insource at least part of production from the current foundry partner. The company targets to build up epi capacity of 2,000 wafer starts per month (wspm) in Singapore by 3Q19. We understand that this capacity build up will require five AIXTRON MOCVD systems, of which two are already ordered. The Singapore side would offer the potential to expand to 4,000 wspm, which is currently under evaluation. ams highlighted its competitive edge in VCSEL technology (smallest pitch, high power, best efficiency).

    ams is forecasting double digit growth for its audio related business. Strong growth in intelligent home assistant devices including Amazon Echo is driving demand for microphones (4-8 per device). ams is participating in the growth via its ASIC supplier role with microphone maker Knowles. Furthermore, the integration of temperature and pressure sensors into microphones has the potential to triple the average selling price for ams.

    According to ams, acquisitions will remain part of the strategy. The company will maintain its strategic approach to buy technology rather than sales.

Companies im Artikel

Aixtron

Amazon

AMS

Apple

ams wafer © ams

8985

ams_akquisitionen_bleiben_teil_der_strategie

192268

inbox_ams_akquisitionen_bleiben_teil_der_strategie