Inbox: RCB kürzt Zumtobel-Kursziel

Akt. Indikation:  6.14 / 6.22
Uhrzeit:  21:04:51
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  -1.28%
Letzter SK:  6.26 ( 6.83%)

Earnings guidance still too optimistic, in our view: In order to deliver on the adj. EBIT target, Zumtobel requires EUR 30-40 mn in 2H. We stress that 2H is the seasonally much weaker semester and in the past years Zumtobel did not even come close to 2H earnings of EUR 30 mn needed for the bottom end. Apart from a comparatively low sales figure assumed for 2H, our scepticism is explained by a very optimistic cost savings target which the management provided in the conference call. Moreover, we argue that given prevailing market challenges the actual retention rate could be lower than assumed. On another note we point out that the company has incorporated a few million from (management bonus) provision releases. To sum up, we think that the revision cycle has not yet bottomed out. Our revised FY 17/18e adj. EBIT estimate is some 10% below the low end of the new EBIT corridor and thus we regard another revision as realistic.