Inbox: Agrana für Berenberg weiter ein Buy, aber mit tieferem Kursziel


Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: Berenberg (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch aus dem Fotoarchiv von

Die Berenberg-Bank nimmt das Kursziel für Agrana (AT0000603709) von 140,00 auf 135,00 Euro zurück, bestätigt aber die Kaufempfehlung. Agrana notiere mit einem Abschlag von etwa 20 Prozent zu Südzucker und anderen Sektor-Playern, so die Analysten.

Hier die Original-Analyse:

  • FY 2018 EBIT guidance held: Agrana’s first trading update in the new EU sugar environment came in weak, as expected, with Q3 EBIT (including JVs) -19% yoy to EUR41.0m and EPS -6% to EUR1.96. Importantly, FY 2018 EBIT guidance was maintained for a “significant” (ie over 10%) increase in EBIT (including JVs) from the EUR172m FY 2017 base level (+25% ytd) despite pricing pressures in Sugar reducing group sales guidance from “moderate” (ie 5-10%) growth to slight (ie by 1-5%) from the EUR2.56bn in 2017. We reduce our EPS estimates by 2-3% reflecting the more challenging sugar market pricing. We maintain our Buy recommendation; however we reduce our price target to EUR135.00 to reflect the estimate changes.

  • ●  Sugar: Sugar EBIT declined 7% yoy in Q3 to EUR7.1m (4.1% margin, -60bp yoy). With EU sugar prices now below EUR400 per tonne (down over 20% yoy) following a strong EU harvest and quota abolition, the outlook for Sugar is more challenging. Management still expects a significant EBIT increase yoy from EUR24.4m last year (+82% ytd), however an underlying decline in FY 2019 is likely. Agrana is (apparently) close to finalising the acquisition of the Sunoko Serbian sugar business; we forecast the deal will close in Q1 2019 with Agrana taking a 51% majority stake for cEUR200m as per the original deal terms but we believe the delay in closing is partly related to Agrana looking to take a larger stake (and disruption in the sugar market impacting valuation expectations).

  • ●  Fruit and Starch: Fruit EBIT fell 5.5% yoy in Q3 to EUR15.6m (5.5% margin, -40bp yoy). Fruit preparations delivered significant EBIT growth supported by favourable emerging market consumption trends (boosted by a recent acquisition in Argentina), but the more commoditised fruit juice concentrate business saw significant EBIT declines. Low EU apple availability saw reduced capacity utilisation in the harvest quarter; however, management believes this will not impact EBIT going forward. Starch EBIT (including JV contribution from Hungrana) fell 24% to EUR19.9m despite flat sales due to the impact of higher raw material costs and ramp-up costs at Aschach.

  • ●  Our view: Agrana trades on 11.5/11.0x calendar 2018/19E P/E and 6.5/6.0x EV/EBITDA, which is a significant 20% discount to our forecasts for Südzucker (and other agricultural commodity players) trading on 14x calendar 2019E P/E. Our three-year EPS CAGR is 7.5%. Agrana has a balanced business model across European agricultural commodities (sugar, grains and fruit) and comes with an attractive dividend yield over 4% and with significant financial flexibility. Even factoring in the Sunoko deal, net debt/EBITDA will go from 0.5x 2018E to just 1.3x 2019E, with continued earnings momentum from organic investments (eg Aschach starch expansion, fruit preparations China and Hungary).

Companies im Artikel


Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Agrana-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Hauck & Aufhäuser, Hudson River Trading Europe, Tower Research Capital und Erste Group Bank AG, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.


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