BT Group und Deutsche Telekom vs. Drillisch und AT&T – kommentierter KW 11 Peer Group Watch Telekom

Scheid
zu DRI (09.03.)

Der spanische Telekomkonzern Telefónica ist einem Medienbericht zufolge am deutschen Mobilfunker 1&1 interessiert. Telefónica verhandele mit dem Rivalen, schrieb die Zeitung El Espanol. Die Transaktion habe ein Volumen von fünf Mrd. Euro. Gerüchte um eine Übernahme von 1&1 durch Telefónica oder Vodafone kursieren seit Längerem. 1&1-Chef und -Mehrheitsaktionär Ralph Dommermuth hat diesen Spekulationen in einem Zeitungsinterview unlängst jedoch eine Absage erteilt. Ich halte es dennoch für möglich, dass es früher oder später zu einem Deal kommt. Heiße Spekulation!

Celovec
zu VOD (12.03.)

  Investment Thesis Update: Why Vodafone Was Trimmed The portfolio applies a simple rule. Capital should only remain in companies with a realistic probability of exceeding the current hurdle rate of roughly 2.2% annual return over the next one to three years, while maintaining meaningful optionality for long-term compounding. Under this framework, Vodafone no longer met the requirements. Vodafone Group operates in a structurally difficult industry. European telecommunications has become a highly regulated, capital-intensive sector with limited pricing power. Operators must continuously invest in spectrum, fiber, and 5G infrastructure while competing in fragmented national markets. As a result, revenue growth across the sector has been minimal for many years. Vodafone’s strategic direction has also remained largely unchanged. The company continues to focus on its traditional telecom offerings, with only incremental adjustments through asset sales, regional restructuring, and partnerships. While these steps may stabilize the balance sheet, they do not materially alter the long-term growth trajectory of the business. Another key factor is opportunity cost. Capital allocated to Vodafone competes with investments in companies benefiting from structural expansion cycles such as artificial intelligence infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, digital platforms, and cybersecurity. In these areas, the portfolio holds positions in businesses with far higher expected growth rates and stronger competitive advantages. From a capital allocation perspective, Vodafone therefore presented three limitations: First, the probability of exceeding the portfolio’s hurdle rate in the near term appeared limited, given the structural growth constraints of the European telecom market. Second, the business lacks the platform dynamics or technological inflection points that typically characterize long-term compounding winners. Third, the dividend yield, while attractive, does not compensate sufficiently for the opportunity cost of holding capital in a low-growth sector. For these reasons the position was trimmed. The decision does not reflect a view that Vodafone is a failing company. Rather, it reflects a portfolio-level choice to concentrate capital in businesses with stronger structural tailwinds and a higher probability of delivering meaningful compounding over time.