Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB
(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)
After announcing a one-off charge of EUR 33 mn to hit 2Q 17 results (scheduled for August 23) last Thursday evening we reiterate our HOLD recommendation for UNIQA
shares setting a new target price of EUR 8.70 (EUR 7.60 previously) only slightly higher than the current share price of EUR 8.40. At the same occasion UNIQA also guided 2Q 17 net profit and PBT indicating an operational development in 2Q 17 that looks satisfying, also in light of rather favourable weather conditions, in our view.
UNIQA has to take a EUR 33 mn hit from contractual guarantees in connection with the divestment of Italian operations: Last Thursday evening UNIQA announced that 2Q 17 numbers will be burdened by a EUR 33 mn hit in the "discontinued operations" from contractual guarantees following the insolvency of its previous Italian cooperation partner Veneto Banca. The charge has a negative impact on BVPS of around EUR 0.11. UNIQA sold its Italian subsidiaries in December 2016 to the Italian mutual insurance company Reale Mutua and in the course of the transaction it guaranteed up to EUR 40 mn for the sales cooperation with Veneto Banca. As Banca Intesa will take over part of Veneto Banca's operations but will probably not adopt the sales cooperation UNIQA will likely be required to make the contractually assured payments. UNIQA reserves the right to take further legal measures, according to the release.
TP hike on higher TBVPS, earnings estimates and multiple expansion: The main reasons for the hike of our fair value estimates are 1) a higher than expected TBVPS in FY 16 (EUR 9.4 vs. RCB est. of EUR 8.4) and hence a rise of TBVPS calculations going forward (17e/18e EUR 9.4/9.2 vs. EUR 8.6/8.4 previously, 2) a 7-8% increase of our PBT forecast in FY 17e and FY 18e (still below consensus) and 3) multiple expansion in the European insurance sector as the median PER 17/18e has risen to 11.7/11.0x from 10.5/10.1x as at the time of our last Company Update in February. Despite the share price drop by 3.7% on Friday UNIQA shares have performed strongly in the recent past delivering a total return of 15% since June vs. +7% of the EuroStoxx Insurance index and +4% of the Austrian ATX
UNIQA trades at a premium vs. peers: On our estimates UNIQA trades at PER 17-18e of 11.7-13.0x representing an about 10% premium vs. our European insurance peer group. The PBV multiple 17-19e of 0.8-0.9x is slightly below the current peer group average of around 1.0x, but UNIQA generates a lower ROE than its peers (ROE 17-18e of 6.4-7.2% vs. the peer median of 9-10%). UNIQA still trades below TBVPS of about EUR 9.4 (approx. 0.9x) vs. its peers trading significantly above the corresponding figure (approx. 1.3-1.4x).
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